Happy New Year! It’s that time of the year to update portfolio performance statistics. It will take me a few more days to complete all my data gathering for TAA, Quant, and Buy and Hold Portfolios before I can do my usual Comparing Portfolio performance post for 2019. I’ll also Read more…
An alternative title for this post could be, the internet rediscovers momentum and hates it, episode 5,000…. Meb Faber posted the other day on a strategy that buys stocks only at their all-time highs and otherwise holds bonds the rest of the time. The strategy has great risk-adjusted returns. It’s Read more…
Ok, one more bond post. I thought I was done with this little series of bond TAA posts but based on some feedback and some very astute questions from my subscribers I decided I needed to do one more. So, here is the basic question I received, “Aren’t you concerned Read more…
This is my last post in the three part series on TAA bond portfolios before I get back to the equity side of things. Today I wanted to look at a way an investor can significantly increase returns in their bond strategies. The TAA strategy I’ll present below uses fixed Read more…
Note: one of my posts from last year, When Models Fail, was chosen for Faber’s Best Investment Writing Volume 3. Check it out if you get a chance. Time to take a quick look back at 2019 YTD performance. In this post I present a quick overview of 1H 2019 Read more…
Wow! I just realized this week that it has been four and half years since I first wrote about trend following for bonds. Time for an update I think. The inspiration and reminder that it had been a long time since I had written about TAA for Bonds was this Read more…
In today’s post I want to look at long term TAA model performance in a different way. I think intuitively most investors realize that any strategy they pick will have periods of outperformance and underperformance. But decision making under real circumstances exposes us to all kinds of biases which often Read more…
Time for my annual post updating statistics for the various portfolios that I track. All portfolio stats were gathered using AllocateSmartly, P123, Morningstar and the wonder that is Excel. Obviously, there are many more portfolio options out there. This is just a sampling of three main portfolio varieties; buy and hold, TAA Read more…
** All the return data for this post comes from AllocateSmartly, Portfolio123, and my own calculations. At the end of October many TAA strategies either triggered to completely risk-off or started moving towards risk-off assets. In today’s post I’m going to dive a little deeper into the TAA return data Read more…
This is a long overdue book keeping post updating statistics for the various portfolios that I track. All portfolio stats were gather using AllocateSmartly, P123, and the wonder that is Excel. Obviously there are a lot more portfolios. This is just a sampling. Go to AllocateSmartly for more on all kinds of Read more…
Note: This is a modified version of an analysis I did for subscribers of the Economic Pulse Newsletter where I used the SPY-COMP indicator from the newsletter in world wide markets. Results for the SPY-COMP indicator are significantly better than the SPY-UI indicator presented in this post. One of the Read more…