“All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” This post is a white paper that I wrote for Economic Pulse Newsletter subscribers a few months ago. If you’re interested in learning more about the newsletter see here. Also, for more info on all kinds of TAA models I highly recommend Read more…
It’s that time of year to update the performance stats of investment systems. In this post, I’ll cover various Tactical Asset Allocation strategies and how they performed in 2017. Let’s jump right in. As usual, I’m using data from the great folks at Allocate Smartly. 2017 was definitely a risk-on Read more…
Happy Holidays! Just wanted to drop a quick post with some great links and thoughts for the end of the year. But first I wanted to give a big thank you to all my readers. As I approach my 8th year of writing this blog I have a lot to Read more…
Today I want to talk about momentum. I’m always struck by the hand wringing I see from investors as prices reach new highs. This seems particularly evident over the last year during a great run for stocks. This is odd when you look at the historical evidence for momentum. Momentum Read more…
In today’s post I’m going to present how using a simple economic indicator can increase returns and lower drawdowns in quant portfolios. I’ve alluded to this in many of my quant posts in the past. Here I present the results of such an approach across a range of quant portfolios. Read more…
Preface: This post is an introduction to my new newsletter. Actually I did a soft launch about a month ago that you may have seen me mention. I’ve copied the newsletter about page below. It’s taken me a long time to get to this point. About 8 years. It’s been Read more…
Personal note: Sorry for the long delay from posting. I had a death in the family this summer, a big overseas family wedding, and I’ve been working on getting my newsletter released, which I’ll announce in a later post. Now, I’m back. I was thinking this morning that with the Read more…
US stocks are expensive. There seems to be article after article on the expensiveness of US stocks these days. Plus, bonds in general are really really expensive. Both US stocks and all bonds are in the top (90th+ percentile) tiers of expensiveness relative to history. As Cliff Asness of AQR Read more…
Today I want to talk about my friend Jose. About a year and half ago, after months of Q & A between us, Jose decided to implement Antonacci’s GEM portfolio in his IRA (see this post for a detailed description). This post describes his first 6 months in GEM, November Read more…
Update: I updated the charts and some of the performance results on March 28, 2017. I found and corrected an error in the performance calculations. Conclusions remain the same. It’s finally time to start turning all the economic indicator stuff I’ve been posting on into something useful for investors. In Read more…
It must be that time of the year again. Retirement hysteria time. Usually in the new year I start seeing a slew of articles on how your retirement is at risk, how you cannot possibly retire now, and the theme for the last few years – how high stock market Read more…