In this post I want to take a look at the 5 year performance of the IVY market timing portfolio that I’ve discussed on the blog several times before (here and here or search the blog for ‘timing‘). For investors that are not inclined to pick investments for themselves, and Read more…
The end of the third quarter was down right ugly. The end of Sept timing model sell signals proved out pretty well this month, preserving an investor’s capital. Lets look at the month end results to the timing model. For background on the model see here. The timing model status Read more…
Just a quick update on my last post on the 200-day moving average timing model. At the end of August the model was signaling the following. See here for more details. Based on the 200-day moving averages (10-month) the model was indicating that investors go to cash for US stocks Read more…
I thought it would be a good time to update the timing model I’ve discussed on the blog before. The model is based on 200-day moving averages and is called the Ivy League Portfolio. See Mebane’s website for more details. I also highly recommend his book on the topic. While Read more…
The 4% rule of thumb for retirement savings is under threat. After 10 years of retirement, through the end of 2009, individuals who retired at the beginning of the year 2000 are potentially on a path to run out of money before the end of their 30 year retirement period. Read more…
One of the things I love about investing is the opportunity to constantly learn and become a better investor. Your results are strongly driven by the time and effort you put into the process. In the past few months I’ve been researching an interesting idea I had. Two posts drove Read more…
In my 2011 outlook post earlier this month I mentioned that I had raised the cash portion of my portfolio to 40%. I did this by selling out of my commodity positions. A recent post I read at Pragmatic Capitalism reminded of me of this and that I should explicitly Read more…
In an earlier post I introduced a method to time the market, based on the 200-day moving average, that produced higher investment returns, lower volatility, and lower drawdowns than a buy and hold portfolio. As I’ve stated here many times lower drawdowns (max principal loss in any period) is critical Read more…
In an earlier post on risk management I discussed various methods of managing downside risk in a portfolio. One method I mentioned was a momentum strategy based on moving averages. Most would call such a strategy a market timing strategy even though that brings up a lot of negative connotations Read more…