Category Archives: Economy

Introduction the Economic Pulse Newsletter

Preface: This post is an introduction to my new newsletter. Actually I did a soft launch about a month ago that you may have seen me mention. I’ve copied the newsletter about page below. It’s taken me a long time to get to this point. About 8 years. It’s been a journey from a fundamental discretionary investor to a 100% systematic investor as you’re probably well aware if you’ve been a blog reader for a while. The newsletter will be in addition to the other things I do here on the blog; TAA, Quant, SWRs, etc. I’m not going to … Continue reading

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Mapping the pros: composite economic indicators – july 2017

In today’s post I’ll update the composite indicator heat map for July. See this post for an introduction to the composite indicators and the heat map. Below is the composite indicator heat map as of Friday, June 30, 2017. We’ve added in release dates for any indicators that have not been reported yet for the month of May. In general, we have the same picture as last month. All the composite economic indicators are showing green confirming what the individual economic indicators were telling us earlier this month. We have had some weakening in the indicators, especially the higher frequency ones like BCI … Continue reading

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Mapping the top economic indicators – june 2017

Before I start today’s post, I’d like to announce my plans for an economic trends newsletter. The newsletter will expand on the topics and concepts of using economic indicators to track the economy and more importantly to improve investing results through their use in quant or TAA investing systems. I’m looking for a handful or so of beta testers to flesh out the details of the newsletter for a few months before it goes live. If you’re interested drop me an email. On to today’s post… In this post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid June 2017. The … Continue reading

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Mapping the pros: composite economic indicators – june 2017

In today’s post I’ll update the composite indicator heat map for June. See this post for an introduction to the composite indicators and the heat map. I’ll also introduce a new composite indicator based on the COMP system I introduced here. Below is the composite indicator heat map as of Wednesday, May 31, 2017. The composite indicator heat map is all green for this month. No imminent recession is signaled. This confirms what the more timely individual indicators and the COMP indicator are telling us. When the composite score exceeds 62 the scoreboard will flash yellow and when it exceeds 106 it will go red. The composite … Continue reading

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Mapping the top economic indicators – may 2017

In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid May 2017. The final indicator for April was released yesterday. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with April data. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 2 of the indicators showed improvement, 4 showed some deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system to … Continue reading

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Mapping the pros: composite economic indicators – may 2017

In today’s post I’ll update the composite indicator heat map for May. See this post for an introduction to the composite indicators and the heat map. I’ll also introduce a new composite indicator based on the COMP system I introduced here. Below is the composite indicator heat map as of Friday, April 28, 2017. A few changes for this month. My partner in crime, Tony, takes care of all these updates and is responsible for the new COMP model as well. We deleted the Capital Spectator’s CRPI and MMRI since he doesn’t publish them on a regular basis; they’re only available with reasonable lag time … Continue reading

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Mapping the top economic indicators – apr 2017

In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid April 2017. The final 2 indicators for March were released this morning. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with March data. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 3 of the indicators showed improvement, 3 showed deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system … Continue reading

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SPY-UI model update for April 2017

The unemployment report was released on Friday, April 9 2017. Here is the update for the SPY-UI model. There is so much noise out there on this report that its important to just ignore the noise and focus on the trend. Note: you don’t need fancy paid tools to track this model. You can use easy free tools like Stockcharts.com for example. I’ll do that below. Most ink on these reports is spilled over the headline total non-farm payrolls number. This is a very noisy number with a margin for error of about 100K jobs. It’s much better to focus … Continue reading

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SPY-UI model now available on P123

A few months ago I implemented the SPY-UI model on the P123 platform. It has recently exited it’s incubation period and is now available for FREE on P123 once you are a member. If you’re not a member you can use my P123 link for a free trial. It is available to all subscription levels. I’ll review the model again here and provide some important details on the P123 model. I first discussed the SPY-UI model in this post. If you really want to dive into the historical details of SPY-UI model then you need to read the Philo Econ post on … Continue reading

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Mapping the pros: composite economic indicators – apr 2017

In today’s post I’ll update the composite indicator heat map for April. See this post for an introduction to the composite indicators and the heat map. I’ll also provide some detail on another of the composite indicators. Below is the composite indicator heat map as of Friday, March 31 2017. The composite heat map is telling us the same thing as the top 6 indicators, and the other individual indicators – no signs of a recession on the horizon, which most of these indicator assume means about 9-12 months out. I like to use the composites as a supplemental set of indicators to … Continue reading

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