In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid April 2017. The final 2 indicators for March were released this morning. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with March data. For background on the top 6 see here.
The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators.
All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 3 of the indicators showed improvement, 3 showed deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system to trigger this month. Here is a brief update on each of the 6 indicators.
- Unemployment rate – Mar was another strong month for the employment rate, despite the weak reading in the headline jobs number. UER is down to 4.5%. Below it’s 12 month SMA. No signs of weakness in this indicator.
- Real retail sales – Mar year over year change increased to 2.71%. Nominal sales were down month over month but the real number was up.
- Industrial production – this month’s year over year change in IP slowed again to a 2.42% increase. Still growing and not near a recession but this has been a weak point of the recovery for a long time now.
- Permits – the March number was better than expected. Permits were up almost 17% over a year ago.
- Leverage – latest reading is a -0.68. A slight deterioration from last month but no signs of concern here.
- Yield curve – worse this month. Tightened again this month to 143 bps. Last July (2016) the yield curve tightened to 118 bps. Bears watching.
A mixed bag for the month but nothing is signaling cause for recessionary concern. At least for now.
That’s it for this month. In summary, all 6 individual economic indicators are currently green.
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