In today’s post I’ll update the composite indicator heat map for July. See this post for an introduction to the composite indicators and the heat map.
Below is the composite indicator heat map as of Friday, June 30, 2017. We’ve added in release dates for any indicators that have not been reported yet for the month of May.
In general, we have the same picture as last month. All the composite economic indicators are showing green confirming what the individual economic indicators were telling us earlier this month. We have had some weakening in the indicators, especially the higher frequency ones like BCI and WLIg, but nothing that has entered warning territory. Wether the recent weakness represents a significant weakening of the economy or just a pull back from unusual post election strength remains to be seen.
6 Comments
PW · July 1, 2017 at 11:57 am
Hi Paul,
Would you agree that the big one to look at is unemployment rate vs 12 month moving average? (ie as per article in Philospohical Economics)
paul.novell@gmail.com · July 1, 2017 at 12:34 pm
If you have to choose one indicator, then yes it has the best track record. But it has been late to some big recessions as well, 1973 and 2001 for example. But there is no reason to choose only one indicator to look at. All 6 that I use in the COMP indicator add value to an investment system.
Paul
R.R. · July 1, 2017 at 3:17 pm
Paul ! You sent me a link to help me get started on learning from a beginner prospective, I saved it on a bookmark but can’t find it. I let someone else do my investing and I made a bad decision. I enjoy your blog but I’m lost. Can you if you have time to send me that link again. Thanks you so much
paul.novell@gmail.com · July 2, 2017 at 5:19 am
Here’s what I sent before:
“Here’s a few sites that may help:
investor.gov
investopedia
vanguard blog”
Unfortunately, there is no real good one place to get started on investing. It is a massive topic.
Paul
Kevin · July 2, 2017 at 6:24 am
Thanks for the sanity check. Too many are preaching major correction balcony.
paul.novell@gmail.com · July 2, 2017 at 8:36 am
That is so true. It is certainly possible and there have been some decent size corrections outside of recessionary periods (1987 being the most extreme example, and late 2015/early 2016 being the most recent) but the economy is still hanging in there as are corporate earnings.
Paul
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