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Tag Archives: economy
In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid May 2017. The final indicator for April was released yesterday. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with April data. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 2 of the indicators showed improvement, 4 showed some deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system to … Continue reading
In today’s post I’ll update the composite indicator heat map for May. See this post for an introduction to the composite indicators and the heat map. I’ll also introduce a new composite indicator based on the COMP system I introduced here. Below is the composite indicator heat map as of Friday, April 28, 2017. A few changes for this month. My partner in crime, Tony, takes care of all these updates and is responsible for the new COMP model as well. We deleted the Capital Spectator’s CRPI and MMRI since he doesn’t publish them on a regular basis; they’re only available with reasonable lag time … Continue reading
In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid April 2017. The final 2 indicators for March were released this morning. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with March data. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 3 of the indicators showed improvement, 3 showed deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system … Continue reading
The unemployment report was released on Friday, April 9 2017. Here is the update for the SPY-UI model. There is so much noise out there on this report that its important to just ignore the noise and focus on the trend. Note: you don’t need fancy paid tools to track this model. You can use easy free tools like Stockcharts.com for example. I’ll do that below. Most ink on these reports is spilled over the headline total non-farm payrolls number. This is a very noisy number with a margin for error of about 100K jobs. It’s much better to focus … Continue reading
A few months ago I implemented the SPY-UI model on the P123 platform. It has recently exited it’s incubation period and is now available for FREE on P123 once you are a member. If you’re not a member you can use my P123 link for a free trial. It is available to all subscription levels. I’ll review the model again here and provide some important details on the P123 model. I first discussed the SPY-UI model in this post. If you really want to dive into the historical details of SPY-UI model then you need to read the Philo Econ post on … Continue reading
Update: I updated the charts and some of the performance results on March 28, 2017. I found and corrected an error in the performance calculations. Conclusions remain the same. It’s finally time to start turning all the economic indicator stuff I’ve been posting on into something useful for investors. In this post I’ll introduce the SPY-COMP indicator and how it works as tool for entering and exiting investments. The mechanics of the SPY-COMP system are similar to the SPY-UI system I’ve posted on previously. The only difference is that the new system uses a composite of the top 6 economic … Continue reading
In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid March 2017. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with February data. Last month’s update is here. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. Just like last month all of the indicators are green. Here’s a brief update on each. Unemployment rate – Feb was another strong month for employment. UER is back down to 4.7%. Below it’s 12 month SMA. No signs of weakness in this indicator. Real retail sales – Feb’s year … Continue reading
On Friday, March 10, the unemployment rate (UER) for Feb 2017 was released by the BLS. The UER improved to 4.7%. In this post I’ll update the SPY-UI indicator for March. I’ll also provide some new charts with historical data that will be useful in the future. The first thing we’ll look at is the latest UER with respect to its 12 month SMA. The chart below plots both of those along with the US recession boundaries and the SP500 monthly drawdowns. The chart goes back to 1948. For this month the UER at 4.7% is still below its 12 … Continue reading
In my last post I introduced a heat map of the top individual economic indicators and how the heat maps are a very simple yet useful way at looking at the overall state of the economy. In this post I’ll do the same thing but this time with composite economic indicators. What is a composite economic indicator and how is it different than an individual indicator? Individual economic indicators typically provide information about one particular aspect of the economy, say housing, and consists of one data series or a composite of related sub-series. A composite economic indicator, as we’re using the term here, tries to … Continue reading
Now that we have a good set of top economic reads on the state of the economy and a list of the top 6 individual economic indicators, we can tackle using these indicators to get a gauge on where we are in the economic cycle. In this post we’ll present a simple heat map of the top 6 economic indicators, look at what the heat map looked like in previous recessionary periods, and finally compare it to what the heat map is saying today. This will become a regular monthly post, published on or just after the third Friday of … Continue reading