Welcome to the Economic Pulse Newsletter. This is our Monthly Newsletter describing and using economic trend based analysis to make investment decisions.
Objectives of the newsletter subscription service:
- Track US economic and financial conditions quantitatively by providing Weekly updates and a monthly in-depth letter
- Tracking of the COMP risk-indicator and the investment systems based on it. Real actionable signals to allow investors to make portfolio decisions. Since 1973 the COMP indicator has identified every recession within month of their start. It has also identified several other high risk market environments in a timely manner
- Use the COMP risk indicator as the basis for a few simple, effective 100% rules-based investment models with the goal of maximizing risk adjusted returns
- Discussion of relevant financial topics of the day, with a focus on filtering out the noise from the signal. 90% of financial topics of the day are pure noise for long term investors
If you want to get a feeling for some of the details of the this type of model, please see this post, where I discuss an early version of the same model we are using in the newsletter.
The two main models we are currently using in the newsletter have even better performance and risk statistics. See below for a comparison with some common portfolio benchmarks. The table is sorted by compound annual returns over the last 20 years.
The newsletter is intended for both investors in the wealth-building phase of their life and for those in the withdrawal phase (retirement). While buy-and-hold investing may be great for the wealth-building phase, data shows that the majority of investors cannot stick with a buy-and-hold system. Most investors in wealth-building mode are better served, and achieve better results, with a tactical asset allocation (TAA) system that manages risk. For investors in the retirement phase TAA systems are the best way to achieve higher withdrawal rates and continue to build wealth in retirement over the long term.
A monthly in-depth newsletter will be released at the end of each month. Since the status of the economic signals can change within a given month we’ll send out a weekly update (Fri or Sat) with a quick summary of what happened during the week. You will also have access to old newsletters, quick links to model status and changes, managing subscriptions, etc.