March was good month for risk assets. Let’s see if it continues in April. Here is the tactical asset allocation update for April 2016. Below are the updates for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. These signals are valid after every trading day. So, Read more
Here is the tactical asset allocation update for February 2016. As I mentioned last month, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates. I am also maintaining the old portfolio formats, in Yahoo Finance, for a while. Here is the link to the Yahoo data. Lets dive right Read more
Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for December 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. No changes for GTAA5. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio SHY went to cash which is basically no Read more
October turned out to be quite a strong month for US stocks as the historical seasonality suggested. Lets see what that strong showing did to the tactical asset allocations for November. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for November 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio Read more
A lot of volatility this month in the equity markets. So far it looks like the portfolio signals to go to cash have been valid. Of course, that’s only half the battle. We’ll see what October brings, a historically positive month for equities. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for Read more
Wow! What a month. After 3 years of a steady grind higher there is finally some significant volatility in the market. Several of the portfolios had a drawdown of about 6% during the month along with the major indices. If this is a surprise or it seems excessive, it’s not. Read more
Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for July 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. There was one change in the GTAA5 portfolio. Bonds (IEF) went to cash this month. GTAA5 is now 40% invested and Read more
In today’s post I want to take a quick look at the role of timing in the GTAA AGG portfolios. What impact does timing have on the performance statistics of the AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios versus not using timing at all in the portfolios. The results will surely surprise some. The Read more
In this post I’ll summarize a recent and very comprehensive study on market timing. It is probably the most comprehensive and robust look at market timing yet. Market timing is one of the biggest potential problems and complaints with TAA portfolios as I highlighted recently. Everyone wants a definitive answer Read more
Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for May 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. Only one change in the GTAA5 portfolio. Foreign stocks (VEU) went back to invested this month, after only one Read more
That’s it for the month March. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for April 2015. All portfolios updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. Only one change in the GTAA5 portfolio. Foreign stocks (VEU) went to Read more