11 months down, 1 to go in 2014. Here are the tactical asset allocation portfolio updates for this month. Starting with the most basic portfolios, below are the December updates for the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. I keep a spreadsheet online that is update automatically. There were no changes from Read more…
Today I want to touch on a little understood aspect of safe withdrawal rates (SWRs) in retirement. Using the historical method to determine SWRs (as opposed to Monte Carlo analysis) means that the maximum SWR (approx 4%) is singularly determined by one 30 year period, the 30 year retirement period Read more…
I’ve been asked the question in the title of this post quite a bit lately – why have the IVY timing portfolios been under performing lately? Here I will show the performance of the various portfolios I track over different investment periods and discuss their recent performance. The table below Read more…
Today I’d like to address some of the biggest concerns with the IVY portfolios, in particular the timing versions. Three big concerns with the implementation of IVY are management fees, trading commissions, and taxes and that they may impact performance enough to render any advantage mute. These are truly valid Read more…
OK, deep breaths, deep breaths….The drivel the passes for reporting on retirement issues never ceases to amaze me. But this time I found a real howler. The “paper of record”, the venerable NY Times, recently published a piece on the 4% safe withdrawal rule, titled “4% Rule for Retirement Withdrawals Read more…
A while back I wrote about some historical analysis I had done that showed several ways that an investor could achieve market beating returns and thus maximize retirement income. It has been known for a long time that several ‘factors’ or characteristics of stocks generate market beating returns. The two Read more…
Happy New Year everyone. Hard to believe its 2013 already. Time to look back at 2012 and see how I did versus my retirement goals. For those interested the 2011 review is here and the 2010 review is here. This marks the end of our 3rd year living the full Read more…
One thing that has always bugged me about retirement calculations is the lack of detail in most of the retirement data and recommendations. Take for example, the 4% safe withdrawal rate that I’ve discussed here many times in the past. The 4% rule says that 4% is the maximum amount Read more…
I don’t know why I feel the need to do an outlook post. I don’t pay any attention to market forecasts. I don’t invest in indexes. So, why the need for an outlook post? Well, over the years I have to come to the opinion that it is quite helpful Read more…
It’s that time of year again. Time to put on the accountant’s hat, tally up the wins and losses for the year and see if my 2011 goals were met. In this post I’ll take a look at the performance of my portfolio in 2011 as well as some of Read more…
In my latest post on investment fees I compared the impact the average fees of active mutual funds vs have on total investment returns. I also compared the active mutual fund fees to those of index funds and to those of individual stock investments. That exercise was a bit theoretical Read more…