A quick post today to let you know that my base strategy from the Economic Pulse Newsletter has been tested by AllocateSmartly and is now available on the platform. I wanted to put my base TAA model to the test on an apples to apples basis against the best TAA Read more
In today’s post I want to take a look at an alternative measure of risk in portfolios, the Ulcer Performance Index, and use it to rank the various TAA and buy and hold strategies. First, let’s talk about the Ulcer Performance Index (UPI). The Ulcer Performance Index (UPI) is similar Read more
Time for my annual post updating statistics for the various portfolios that I track. This is the last post rounding up 2019 statististics. All portfolio stats were gathered using AllocateSmartly, P123, various other sites like MSCI, and the wonder that is Excel. Obviously, there are many more portfolio options out there. Read more
In this post I update my TAA Batting Averages post from last year. The introduction to that post sums up the intent of this excercise pretty well so I’ll just say the same thing again this year. In today’s post I want to look at long term TAA model performance Read more
Happy New Year! It’s that time of the year to update portfolio performance statistics. It will take me a few more days to complete all my data gathering for TAA, Quant, and Buy and Hold Portfolios before I can do my usual Comparing Portfolio performance post for 2019. I’ll also Read more
An alternative title for this post could be, the internet rediscovers momentum and hates it, episode 5,000…. Meb Faber posted the other day on a strategy that buys stocks only at their all-time highs and otherwise holds bonds the rest of the time. The strategy has great risk-adjusted returns. It’s Read more
Ok, one more bond post. I thought I was done with this little series of bond TAA posts but based on some feedback and some very astute questions from my subscribers I decided I needed to do one more. So, here is the basic question I received, “Aren’t you concerned Read more
This is my last post in the three part series on TAA bond portfolios before I get back to the equity side of things. Today I wanted to look at a way an investor can significantly increase returns in their bond strategies. The TAA strategy I’ll present below uses fixed Read more
Note: an enhanced version of this strategy, BOND-COMP, is now part of the Economic Pulse Newsletter Most tactical asset allocation strategies focus on equites. That’s completely understandable. They are the highest return asset class over the long run and that is where most of the TAA research has been done. Read more
Note: one of my posts from last year, When Models Fail, was chosen for Faber’s Best Investment Writing Volume 3. Check it out if you get a chance. Time to take a quick look back at 2019 YTD performance. In this post I present a quick overview of 1H 2019 Read more
Wow! I just realized this week that it has been four and half years since I first wrote about trend following for bonds. Time for an update I think. The inspiration and reminder that it had been a long time since I had written about TAA for Bonds was this Read more