Time for the IVY timing portfolio trading signals for the end of January 2013.
As usual you can see the signals at world beta or my preferred source dshort. Below are the signals for the end of January 2013.
Dshort posted this update during the day but I have confirmed that the signals remained the same after the market closed. If/when Dshort posts an update chart I will update mine. This month there was one new signal. The new signal was a sell signal for bonds, IEF. This last trend for bonds lasted from May 2011 until the end of Jan 2013. Quite a nice run. Also, the last sell signal for bonds lasted for 5 months. We’ll see how long this one lasts.
For previous posts on the IVY timing model and its performance see here and here.
2 Comments
Bob · February 6, 2013 at 7:17 am
Since this is my transistion year into retirement, I am very interested in how one lives off investments (especially during bear markets) — and, as a result, interested in your comments. Thanks for a great blog that deals with “real life” investing and income issues.
The switching idea of the IVY portfolio is interesting, and I did a rough monthly calculation of how that might work with VWENX (June 2001 through January 2013). I know this is only one holding, and you would need to do it for the entire portfolio, but it was interesting nonetheless.
In my VWENX analysis, taking all dividends in cash and withdrawing about an equal amount when the holding was sold, I came up with with about 27% more income from buy and hold but 20% less ending value (shares held at current price). If you are trying to live off your investment income only (obviously supplemented by some SS and/or an annuity), buy and hold seems to be the better choice. If you are still concerned with growing capital, the IVY might be a good choice.
I suspect that all of this depends on a lot of factors unique to one’s specific holdings (e.g., price trends, dividend yield pattern, etc.), but it is an analysis that is worth doing for serious retirees living off their investment income.
You could probably do a much better job of the analysis, so I’d be interested in your thoughts or observations.
Del Clark · March 1, 2013 at 8:19 am
Paul,
DBC sell signal today in the IVY Portfolio?
Del
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