Tag Archives: CWR

Revisiting the worst times to retire in history (2012 update)

Now that 2012 is behind us I wanted to update my analysis of the worst times to retire in history. See here for the original post. Armed with my own annual return data base I can now show at lot more detail as to the progress of the portfolios of the worst case retirees. Looking at how these worst case portfolios evolved and comparing them to the experiences of the year 2000 and 2008 retiree can be quite instructive. The worst time to retire since 1929 turns out not to be the Great Depression, as most people would believe. In … Continue reading

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The greatest test of the 4% rule in history

We are living through the greatest test of the 4% safe withdrawal rate in history. Sounds like a big overarching statement but that’s what the data tells me.  A little over a year ago I questioned whether or not the year 2000 retiree would be the first to destroy the 4% rule. In other words, the year 2000 may turn out to be the worst time in history to retire. While the history of the year 2000 retiree is not complete we can take a look at his/her progress 12 years into retirement. It didn’t look good then and as … Continue reading

Posted in Portfolio, Retirement | Tagged , , , , , | 28 Comments

Will the year 2000 retiree destroy the 4% rule?

The 4% rule of thumb for retirement savings is under threat. After 10 years of retirement, through the end of 2009, individuals who retired at the beginning of the year 2000 are potentially on a path to run out of money before the end of their 30 year retirement period. In this post I’ll compare the current path of the year 2000 retiree to the two worst previous times in history to retire and what that could mean to current and up and coming retirees. The 4% rule is the probably the most popular way of determining how much a … Continue reading

Posted in Dividends, Retirement | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

The early warning retirement indicator

I haven’t talked about safe withdrawal rates (SWR) in a while. For earlier discussions on what the SWR is on how to use it in retirement see the series of posts here. The SWR basically determines what is the maximum a retiree can withdraw from their portfolio every year and make sure the portfolio lasts through their entire retirement. One of the harder parts of implementing the SWR is making increases in withdrawals at times when the value of the portfolio is heading down. It often takes immense emotional fortitude to trust in history and increase spending in a given … Continue reading

Posted in Retirement | Tagged , , | 10 Comments