Tactical asset allocation – april 2015 update

That’s it for the month March. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for April 2015. All portfolios updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet.

First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. Only one change in the GTAA5 portfolio. Foreign stocks (VEU) went to cash this month, after only one month on buy signal.… Read the rest

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Back to basics: diversified buy and hold portfolios

I often get asked “how do I get started with an investment portfolio?”. The best answer, but not very helpful, is to learn about building and investing in a diversified buy and hold portfolio for the long term. A very true statement but it usually leaves the investor still looking for answers.… Read the rest

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Asset allocation vs security selection

Nice to be back to posting. San Diego has been so full of fun, friends, family, and amazing local beer, that my blogging definitely suffered…

Is it even worth picking individual stocks? Even in quant portfolios? The more I delve into tactical asset allocation and it’s ease and benefits the more I’ve been asking myself this question.… Read the rest

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Tactical asset allocation – march 2015 update

Month number 2 for 2015 has come and gone. I’ll get right to the updates for this coming month, March 2015. Like last month I’ll continue with added commentary on the portfolio changes.

Starting with the most basic portfolios, below are the March updates for the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio.… Read the rest

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Estimating worst case SWRs for modern portfolios

One of the challenges in dealing with modern portfolios like the Permanent Portfolio, the various IVY portfolios, Risk Parity portfolios, etc is the lack of long term historical data. Most of the modern portfolio data for a broad range of asset classes only goes back to 1973. The period from 1973 onward obviously only represents a subset of historical economic and financial conditions.… Read the rest

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Poor future returns and the safety first approach

In today’s post I want to address another approach to dealing with the prospect of poor future returns. In my last post I described the prospect of poor future returns and different risk-based portfolio strategies in such an environment. Today I’ll consider an alternative. The alternatives are various dedicated income approaches that put the retirement income stream at the top of the priority list.… Read the rest

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What to do about poor future returns

There’s been a lot of chatter recently about asset valuations, in particular US stocks and US bonds, and their impact of future returns. This is nothing new. It just seems to get louder at the start of every new year. I’ve discussed this topic before on the blog. Last time here.… Read the rest

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Tactical asset allocation – february 2015 update

And there goes January. That was sure quick. There were a few developments over January in a few of the tactical asset allocation portfolios so let’s get right to it. Here is the February 2015 tactical asset allocation update. As of this month all the data is coming from new versions of my Google spreadsheets which are updating correctly.… Read the rest

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Juicing up small cap value quant portfolios

The world of quantitative finance is never boring. At least not from the research perspective. Today I want to explore some new research from one of the top quant shops on the small company effect and see how an investor can apply it simply to an existing quant approach. Specifically, I want to investigate if adding a quality screen to a small cap quant value portfolio increases performance.… Read the rest

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Revisiting the worst times to retire in history (2014 update)

Time for another one of those yearly updates. In this post I’ll update the data for the worst times in history to retire by adding 2014 data to the 4 worst retirement portfolios in history. See here for last year’s update.

The worst time to retire since 1929 turns out not to be the Great Depression, as most people would believe.… Read the rest

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