Comparing portfolio performance (1973 to 2015)

I’ve finally managed to gather enough portfolio performance data to out together this year’s portfolio comparison edition. I was able to add 2014 and 2015 data. Last year’s post is here. You can use last year’s post and the Portfolios page for portfolio definitions. I’ll present the comparison of the portfolios in a few ways. I also added a few new fields this year. I added the last 3 yr, 5 yr, and 10 yr performance for each portfolio and performance in the last bull market and last bull/bear market cycle. Now, on to the data. First, lets present the … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – february 2016 update

Here is the tactical asset allocation update for February 2016. As I mentioned last month, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates. I am also maintaining the old portfolio formats, in Yahoo Finance, for a while. Here is the link to the Yahoo data. Lets dive right in. Below are the updates for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. The big change here is the use of FINVIZ data and more importantly that these signals are valid after every trading day. So, while I’ll maintain these month end updates this means … Continue reading

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Quant strategies: 2015 performance review

Here are the 2015 total return and max drawdown numbers for the various quant strategies I track. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2014. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below I list various quant strategies along with their YTD performance and drawdowns. Also, listed are various benchmark indices. The consumer staples value (CS value) strategy and the Mircocap strategy were the best performing strategies for 2015 with 15.13% and 13.71% 2015 return respectively. The 50/50 combo of … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – january 2016 update

Happy New Year everyone! Time to start fresh again in 2016. Here is the first tactical asset allocation update for 2016. As I mentioned last month, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates and also going to use a slightly different format for these monthly updates. I will also maintain the old portfolio formats, in Yahoo Finance, for a while. Here is the link to the Yahoo data. Lets dive right in. Below are the updates for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. The big change here is … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – december 2015 update

Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for December 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. No changes for GTAA5. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio SHY went to cash which is basically no change. Now for the more aggressive GTAA AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios. Below is the snapshot of all the 13 asset classes. No changes for AGG3 this month. For AGG6, VCIT replaced VGIT and 33% of the portfolio is in cash just like last month. Performance for the portfolios so far this … Continue reading

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Quant investing: improving the value of shareholder yield

Part of quant investing is always being on the look out for better metrics and systems that enhance performance. Today I want to look at a simple improvement to the value metric shareholder yield. I’ll look at this in the context of the quant index replication strategy I posted on here. First, lets look at shareholder yield in more detail. Recently there has been some interesting discussion on the level of buybacks, as a percentage of market cap, and how strong a conviction by management that represents. The idea being that the higher percentage of shares a company is buying … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – november 2015 update

October turned out to be quite a strong month for US stocks as the historical seasonality suggested. Lets see what that strong showing did to the tactical asset allocations for November. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for November 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. GTAA5 is now 60% invested with VTI and VNQ going to invested this month. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio VTI went back to invested for this coming month. Now for the more aggressive GTAA AGG3 and … Continue reading

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Quant investing: microcap trending value

After my last post updating quant system performance I realized I’ve never posted on one of the quant systems, the microcap trending value system. In this post I’ll describe the microcap trending value system, its historical performance, and a tweak from the O’Shaughnessy version of the system which improves performance. The top performing quant system, by annual return, from O’Shaughnessy’s What Works On Wall Street is the microcap trending value system. From the Table 28.1, page 597, from 1965 through 2009 the strategy returned 22.33% per year with a standard deviation of 20.38%, Sharpe ratio of 0.85, and a max … Continue reading

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Quant strategies – YTD performance update

Now, that equity markets have experienced a nice 10%+ correction this year I thought it would be of value to look at the performance of various quant strategies year to date, especially during a tough year for stocks as 2015 has been. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2014. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below I list various quant strategies along with their YTD performance and drawdowns. Also, listed are various benchmark indices (highlighted in … Continue reading

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New portfolios page

To make finding basic information about the various portfolios I discuss on the blog I’ve created a new Portfolios page. This should especially help out new readers to the blog. The page lists the 3 major type of portfolios on the blog; buy and hold portfolios, tactical asset allocation portfolios, and quant investing portfolios. Hopefully, you find it useful. Let me know what you think.

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