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Tag Archives: momentum
Q3 2017 is now behind us. Time to update some performance numbers. In this post I update the quant portfolio performance stats for through Q3 2017. Below are the 2017 YTD total return (through Sep 30, 2017) and max drawdown numbers for the various quant strategies I track. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2016. No changes in the holdings since that time (except for the TAA Bond strategy and the Pure Momentum strategy which re-balance every 4 weeks). Like last quarter’s post … Continue reading
What would you think of a quant strategy that only invests in the most profitable companies? Would it under perform the market or beat the market? If you’re an efficient market person you may think that higher profitability must be priced into equities and therefore at best the strategy would match the market. Not so. Turns out that profitability is quite a durable factor and is only beaten by momentum and value. In this post I’ll take a look at some of the data on the profitability factor and how it can be applied in a simple quant strategy. First, … Continue reading
For today’ s post and the next few I’ll be going back to my favorite topic, quant investing. In this post I want to explore pure momentum quant portfolios and in particular ways to make pure momentum investing tolerable and implementable to more investors. Note: for a refresher on momentum and its power (arguably the most powerful factor in investing) see this great paper from AQR. You may have noticed that none of the quant portfolios that I have presented on the blog are pure momentum strategies. Only two strategies, trending value and microcap trending value, use momentum to picks stocks … Continue reading
If you pay attention to the financial market news you may have noticed a lot of attention being focused on the slowing US/Global economy and the implications it has for financial markets. Just do a search on ‘slowing global PMI’ and watch the hours waste away. Basically, the US/Global economy is slowing which means recession is right around the corner which means financial markets will tank. That seems to be the predominant bear case now, or one of the many. There is some merit to this argument. The worst market downturns occur during recessions. The trick is that you need … Continue reading
A lot of volatility this month in the equity markets. So far it looks like the portfolio signals to go to cash have been valid. Of course, that’s only half the battle. We’ll see what October brings, a historically positive month for equities. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for October 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. GTAA5 is now 20% invested with IEF going to invested this month. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio there were no changes this month. Now for … Continue reading
Any investment strategy that is not ‘the market’ will experience periods of under performance. Sometimes quite extended like value investing in the late 90s. How an investor handles those periods of underperformance goes a long way to determining whether they have any chance of outperforming the averages over time. In today’s post I want to highlight the recent under performance of one the best performing quant strategy from What Works on Wall Street. In my first post on quantitative investing I introduced the top quantitative investing strategies as presented in the book What Works on Wall Street by O’Shaughnessy. I focused … Continue reading
There’s been a lot of chatter recently about asset valuations, in particular US stocks and US bonds, and their impact of future returns. This is nothing new. It just seems to get louder at the start of every new year. I’ve discussed this topic before on the blog. Last time here. Basically, my point was that we may indeed, in fact it’s probable, be facing poor future returns – a least for the next 10 years, but that doesn’t mean that the 4% SWR rule is dead. In fact the 4% SWR implies even worse returns than people are forecasting … Continue reading
Warning. This post is kind of a finance geek out. I’ll try and keep it as basic as possible but I apologize in advance if I cause any heads to hit the keyboard… In this post I’ll take a look at impact and potential benefits of adding volatility weighting and mean-variance optimization to tactical asset allocation portfolios similar to the IVY (GTAA) portfolios I discuss frequently on the blog. Most of the data and theory I present here comes from this great paper on Adaptive Asset Allocation. If you have any interest in applying the concepts here to your portfolio … Continue reading
Interest rates are going up. Interest rates are going down. The 30 year bull market in bonds is coming to an end. The FED cannot afford to raise rates significantly without killing the economy. Bonds will have negative real returns going forward. We’re in the biggest bond bubble of all time. Bonds are still the best diversifier of equity risk. Have you heard any of these lately? How about over the last few years? Probably incessantly. There seems to be more hand wringing and fretting over the future of bonds than even equities. And that is saying something. We could … Continue reading
Time to move on to the next quant strategy I want to highlight. This post will cover a strategy called Trending Value, aka the value stocks on the mend strategy. This strategy is the top ranked strategy by risk adjusted return (sharpe ratio) in the book What Works On Wall Street. This strategy shows the power of combining the three market factors that have been proven to outperform over time; size, value, and momentum. Actually you get two strategies out of this one since you start out with a powerful value screen. With the basics we learned in the previous … Continue reading