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Tag Archives: Antonacci
Personal note: Sorry for the long delay from posting. I had a death in the family this summer, a big overseas family wedding, and I’ve been working on getting my newsletter released, which I’ll announce in a later post. Now, I’m back. I was thinking this morning that with the increasing talk of market valuation, bubbles, etc. it would be a good time to revisit my post on TAA vs buy and hold in overvalued markets from 5 months ago. Read that post for a background on the analysis I did below. Since we’re at a new level in CAPE … Continue reading
Quick note. I have now embedded the Google sheets that contain the GTAA13, AGG3, AGG6, and Antonacci GEM, DMFI portfolios directly on the blog. I have upgraded the Google code a bit and implemented auto sort so they should be a bit more robust than in the past. Let’s hope Google cooporates. These are informational only. I don’t do any other tracking of these portfolios other than this. I highly recommend Allocate Smartly for detailed tracking and performance reporting. The sheets are sub menu items in the Portfolios Menu above. Here are the direct links. GTAA Based Portfolios Antonacci Based … Continue reading
US stocks are expensive. There seems to be article after article on the expensiveness of US stocks these days. Plus, bonds in general are really really expensive. Both US stocks and all bonds are in the top (90th+ percentile) tiers of expensiveness relative to history. As Cliff Asness of AQR points out, the problem is that they are both at these expensive levels at the same time, which hasn’t happened ever. That means that a portfolio of US stocks and bonds (50/50, 60/40, take your pick) has a very low expected return going forward. Maybe the lowest ever. OK. Now what? … Continue reading
Today I want to talk about my friend Jose. About a year and half ago, after months of Q & A between us, Jose decided to implement Antonacci’s GEM portfolio in his IRA (see this post for a detailed description). This post describes his first 6 months in GEM, November 2015 through April 2016. I think there are some good lessons here for the implementation of any TAA portfolio or any active strategy for that matter. I covered some TAA implementation tips and tools before. See here and here. Let’s jump right in. Starting out in any active strategy can … Continue reading
Following up on my last post, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the performance of TAA strategies. In particular, I’ll take a look at the differences between the top performing TAA strategies and the bottom performing ones. There are some important points that come out of this analysis which I think are quite useful when deciding which TAA strategies are right for you. As in my last post… The data I’m using is from Allocate Smartly. I’ve taken return data for all the TAA strategies they track, 60/40, and the All Weather Portfolio (a globally diversified portfolio). Data is … Continue reading
Note: thanks to those who signed up to Allocate Smartly through my link. It’s provided a nice extra revenue stream that is much appreciated. One of the TAA strategies that I have often been asked about is Antonacci’s Composite Dual Momentum (ACDM from now on). I never got around to tracking or writing about it but now the the folks at Allocate Smartly have it covered. In this post I’ll highlight the key details of the strategy and it’s results using the recent blog post from Allocate Smartly. The ACDM strategy basically applies the dual momentum concept from Antonacci’s GEM strategy to … Continue reading
Here is the very quick version of the tactical asset allocation update for Oct. Signals are valid for until the end of the month. Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. One change for AGG3. VBK replaces VNQ. Two changes for AGG6. IAU and VEA replace VNQ and VGLT. For the Antonacci dual momentum GEM and GBM portfolios, GEM remains in SPY, and the bond portion of GBM is in CRED. The Antonacci tracking sheet shareable so you can see the portfolio details for yourself. The Bond 3 quant model, see spreadsheet, ranks the bond ETFs by 6 month … Continue reading
Here is the tactical asset allocation update for August 2016. Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. This is a new version of the sheet. Google updates the Sheets program every so often and old version of sheets just stop working. That happened this month so I had to do a new version. The sheet contains the IVY5, GTAA5, and the Permanent Portfolio as well. These signals are valid after every trading day. So, while I’ll maintain these month end updates this means that you can implement your portfolio changes on any … Continue reading
Here is the tactical asset allocation update for July 2016. If you didn’t listen to the news all month or didn’t check prices during the month then you would think it was a pretty uneventful month and overall quite a decent month for almost all asset classes. Unfortunately, like most people you probably at least paid some passing interest to the event du jour. This month it was Brexit (or the referendum vote in the UK to leave the EU which passed by a slight majority which was a surprise to markets). I’ll just say a couple of things about … Continue reading
Here is the tactical asset allocation update for June 2016. Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. The sheet contains the IVY5, GTAA5, and the Permanent Portfolio as well. These signals are valid after every trading day. So, while I’ll maintain these month end updates this means that you can implement your portfolio changes on any day of the month, not just month end. FINVIZ will at times generate signals that are slightly different than Yahoo Finance. Also, year to date performance figures have been updated and are included in the sheet. … Continue reading