Quant strategies: 2016 performance review

Happy New Year everyone! Hope you all had a great holiday season full of great food, family, and a lack of financial market news and data. I just returned from two weeks with my entire family, plus my wife’s family, down in Coconut Grove, Fl in a great Airbnb rental. It provided a much needed rest and re-charge particularly from…

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Bond quant performance during the bond selloff

I was going to title this post something like ‘bond quant performance during the bond meltdown’ or something a bit more hyperbolic than the current title. But there’s enough hyperbole in the financial news without me adding to the mix. Just google ‘bond meltdown’ and you’ll see what I mean. Anyway, in this post I want to take a quick…

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Ranking the top and bottom TAA strategies

Following up on my last post, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the performance of TAA strategies. In particular, I’ll take a look at the differences between the top performing TAA strategies and the bottom performing ones. There are some important points that come out of this analysis which I think are quite useful when deciding which TAA…

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TAA strategy performance over time

In this post I’m going to take a look at performance as a whole of a group of TAA strategies and how that performance has varied over time. I’ll then compare it to the classic 60 40 US stock US bond portfolio and a more globally diversified and modern portfolio, the All Weather Portfolio. There’s some interesting things to note in the…

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Building a portfolio from individual quant strategies

In this post I want to briefly return to putting together quantitative strategies into a an overall portfolio. I wrote about this in 2014 but I have better tools and more data now. Basically let’s build a portfolio of quant strategies that reflects a typical 60/40 US stock US bond benchmark and compare portfolio statistics to the SP500 and to…

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Quant investing: making momentum tolerable

For today’ s post and the next few I’ll be going back to my favorite topic, quant investing. In this post I want to explore pure momentum quant portfolios and in particular ways to make pure momentum investing tolerable and implementable to more investors. Note: for a refresher on momentum and its power (arguably the most powerful factor in investing) see…

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Brief survey of expected return forecasts – nothing new

About once a year I go through various future expected return forecasts. Here are some recent updates on what the investment community is saying about future asset class returns, most of them focused on US stock returns, over the next 10 years. In short, nothing really new from last year, expect future returns to be lower, but worth a review…

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TAA portfolios: Antonacci’s Composite Dual Momentum

Note: thanks to those who signed up to Allocate Smartly through my link. It’s provided a nice extra revenue stream that is much appreciated. One of the TAA strategies that I have often been asked about is Antonacci’s Composite Dual Momentum (ACDM from now on). I never got around to tracking or writing about it but now the the folks at Allocate…

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Update on SPY-UI timing indicators

This post is a brief update of the SPY-UI indicators I reviewed in this post and this one. Refer back to both those posts for details on the two indicators I presented. Turns out we’re in the midst of a real time test of both of these indicators. As a quick reminder the basic SPY-UI indicator attempts to time the…

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TAA portfolio tracking: turning it over to the pros

I knew this time would come eventually and here it is. Starting this month I will not be publishing any further tracking updates on TAA portfolios. Going forward I will be using and recommending Allocate Smartly for TAA portfolio tracking and implementation. Here’s the why and some details on the platform. The number of portfolios I was tracking and wanted…

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