I thought it would be a good time to update the timing model I’ve discussed on the blog before. The model is based on 200-day moving averages and is called the Ivy League Portfolio. See Mebane’s website for more details. I also highly recommend his book on the topic. While […]
One of the things I love about investing is the opportunity to constantly learn and become a better investor. Your results are strongly driven by the time and effort you put into the process. In the past few months I’ve been researching an interesting idea I had. Two posts drove […]
In an earlier post I introduced a method to time the market, based on the 200-day moving average, that produced higher investment returns, lower volatility, and lower drawdowns than a buy and hold portfolio. As I’ve stated here many times lower drawdowns (max principal loss in any period) is critical […]
In an earlier post on risk management I discussed various methods of managing downside risk in a portfolio. One method I mentioned was a momentum strategy based on moving averages. Most would call such a strategy a market timing strategy even though that brings up a lot of negative connotations […]
TAA strategies look amazing on paper. After all, what is not to like about higher absolute and higher risk-adjusted returns over a buy and hold portfolio? But in the real world when implementing TAA strategies there are a few common barriers that limit and make difficult their implementation for many […]
This post updates the quant strategies performance through year end 2019. The 2018 version of the post is here. If you’re new to all this quant stuff, and like what you see, you can start on my Portfolios page and read through the posts in the quant section. Then you […]
Happy New Year! It’s that time of the year to update portfolio performance statistics. It will take me a few more days to complete all my data gathering for TAA, Quant, and Buy and Hold Portfolios before I can do my usual Comparing Portfolio performance post for 2019. I’ll also […]
Note: an enhanced version of this strategy, BOND-COMP, is now part of the Economic Pulse Newsletter Most tactical asset allocation strategies focus on equites. That’s completely understandable. They are the highest return asset class over the long run and that is where most of the TAA research has been done. […]
Note: one of my posts from last year, When Models Fail, was chosen for Faber’s Best Investment Writing Volume 3. Check it out if you get a chance. Time to take a quick look back at 2019 YTD performance. In this post I present a quick overview of 1H 2019 […]
** All the return data for this post comes from AllocateSmartly, Portfolio123, and my own calculations. At the end of October many TAA strategies either triggered to completely risk-off or started moving towards risk-off assets. In today’s post I’m going to dive a little deeper into the TAA return data […]
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