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Tag Archives: Unemployment rate
The unemployment report was released on Friday, April 9 2017. Here is the update for the SPY-UI model. There is so much noise out there on this report that its important to just ignore the noise and focus on the trend. Note: you don’t need fancy paid tools to track this model. You can use easy free tools like Stockcharts.com for example. I’ll do that below. Most ink on these reports is spilled over the headline total non-farm payrolls number. This is a very noisy number with a margin for error of about 100K jobs. It’s much better to focus … Continue reading
On Friday, March 10, the unemployment rate (UER) for Feb 2017 was released by the BLS. The UER improved to 4.7%. In this post I’ll update the SPY-UI indicator for March. I’ll also provide some new charts with historical data that will be useful in the future. The first thing we’ll look at is the latest UER with respect to its 12 month SMA. The chart below plots both of those along with the US recession boundaries and the SP500 monthly drawdowns. The chart goes back to 1948. For this month the UER at 4.7% is still below its 12 … Continue reading
This post is a brief update of the SPY-UI indicators I reviewed in this post and this one. Refer back to both those posts for details on the two indicators I presented. Turns out we’re in the midst of a real time test of both of these indicators. As a quick reminder the basic SPY-UI indicator attempts to time the market by being risk on when the unemployment rate is below its 12 month simple moving average and by being risk off when the unemployment rate is above it’s 12 month simple moving average. The second, combo indicator, uses basic … Continue reading
Time for the part 3 of the series on using economic indicators to time the market. In this post I’ll add a simple extension to the models analyzed in Part 2. If you haven’t read the first two posts you won’t understand this one. I’m just extending the model to include foreign stocks, foreign developed and emerging markets. This is much more reflective of real diversified portfolios – even with the heavy home bias amongst US investors. Lets see what that does to the results. For foreign developed stocks I’m using EFA ETF because it has the longest history. Similarly, … Continue reading