Tag Archives: UI indicator

Quant investing: getting the big things right

Keep it sweet and simple. That’s the fit-for-publishing version of KISS. And it is critical for being successful in the long term with quant investing. The biggest mistake I see new quant investors make is over complicating things. This just leads to failure. By focusing on a few high impact factors a quant strategy can still significantly outperform while being relatively easy to maintain. In today’s post I will present a KISS quant strategy has provided plenty of outperformance while being easy to maintain. Before I dive into the KISS quant strategy let me throw some stats at you. I … Continue reading

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Using economic indicators to time the market – part 3

Time for the part 3 of the series on using economic indicators to time the market. In this post I’ll add a simple extension to the models analyzed in Part 2. If you haven’t read the first two posts you won’t understand this one. I’m just extending the model to include foreign stocks, foreign developed and emerging markets. This is much more reflective of real diversified portfolios – even with the heavy home bias amongst US investors. Lets see what that does to the results. For foreign developed stocks I’m using EFA ETF because it has the longest history. Similarly, … Continue reading

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Using economic indicators to time the market – part 2

In my last post I looked at using the change in trend of the unemployment rate as a market timing indicator. The results were impressive to say the least – almost a doubling of risk adjusted returns over buy and hold. In this post I want to make the analysis I did a little more real world by adding safe assets to the mix. Let’s take the same analysis from the last post and add US gov’t bonds as the safe asset to switch into when the market timing indicator triggers an exit from US stocks. I’ll use real world … Continue reading

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