DonateIf the information I provide on the blog is useful to you and has been helpful, feel free to tip the beer fund!! I love me some fine craft beer...
Subscribe to Blog via Email
Follow me on TwitterMy Tweets
- Full Disclaimer - Nothing on this site should ever be considered advice, research or the invitation to buy or sell securities. These are my personal opinions only.
Tag Archives: TAA
US stocks are expensive. There seems to be article after article on the expensiveness of US stocks these days. Plus, bonds in general are really really expensive. Both US stocks and all bonds are in the top (90th+ percentile) tiers of expensiveness relative to history. As Cliff Asness of AQR points out, the problem is that they are both at these expensive levels at the same time, which hasn’t happened ever. That means that a portfolio of US stocks and bonds (50/50, 60/40, take your pick) has a very low expected return going forward. Maybe the lowest ever. OK. Now what? … Continue reading
Today I want to talk about my friend Jose. About a year and half ago, after months of Q & A between us, Jose decided to implement Antonacci’s GEM portfolio in his IRA (see this post for a detailed description). This post describes his first 6 months in GEM, November 2015 through April 2016. I think there are some good lessons here for the implementation of any TAA portfolio or any active strategy for that matter. I covered some TAA implementation tips and tools before. See here and here. Let’s jump right in. Starting out in any active strategy can … Continue reading
Update: I updated the charts and some of the performance results on March 28, 2017. I found and corrected an error in the performance calculations. Conclusions remain the same. It’s finally time to start turning all the economic indicator stuff I’ve been posting on into something useful for investors. In this post I’ll introduce the SPY-COMP indicator and how it works as tool for entering and exiting investments. The mechanics of the SPY-COMP system are similar to the SPY-UI system I’ve posted on previously. The only difference is that the new system uses a composite of the top 6 economic … Continue reading
It must be that time of the year again. Retirement hysteria time. Usually in the new year I start seeing a slew of articles on how your retirement is at risk, how you cannot possibly retire now, and the theme for the last few years – how high stock market valuations and low interest rates will guarantee that either you are going to work forever or you are going to retire with a much lower living standard. This time the offending piece was in Kiplinger’s of all places, which was brought to my attention by one my weekly econ reads, … Continue reading
Just a quick post today on the TAA bond strategy that I’ve posted on and keep track of here. Starting yesterday, the strategy is on AllocateSmartly. See the blog post discussing the details of the strategy and it’s historical performance. A few important items that I’d like to highlight follow. First, the strategy is slightly different from the original that I posted here. The details are in the AllocateSmartly blog post. The ETFs are slightly different, the absolute momentum filter is applied against T-bills instead of using zero like I did, and the backtest results are much more robust. The … Continue reading
Note: All the data tables have been updated to include the TAA bond strategy. Thanks to AllocateSmartly, P123, and Stockcharts.com, I was able to gather 2016 performance data much sooner than last year. This post updates the portfolio statistics, through 2016, for all the various portfolios I track that I have data for going back to 1973. It is not comprehensive by any means but contains a good sample of various diversified global buy and hold portfolios, tactical asset allocation portfolios, and quant portfolios, as well as the popular benchmarks, in particular the 60/40 portfolio for US investors. Last year’s … Continue reading
Following up on my last post, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the performance of TAA strategies. In particular, I’ll take a look at the differences between the top performing TAA strategies and the bottom performing ones. There are some important points that come out of this analysis which I think are quite useful when deciding which TAA strategies are right for you. As in my last post… The data I’m using is from Allocate Smartly. I’ve taken return data for all the TAA strategies they track, 60/40, and the All Weather Portfolio (a globally diversified portfolio). Data is … Continue reading
In this post I’m going to take a look at performance as a whole of a group of TAA strategies and how that performance has varied over time. I’ll then compare it to the classic 60 40 US stock US bond portfolio and a more globally diversified and modern portfolio, the All Weather Portfolio. There’s some interesting things to note in the analysis. Let’s get to it. The data I’m using is from Allocate Smartly. I’ve taken return data for all the TAA strategies they track, 60/40, and the All Weather Portfolio (a globally diversified portfolio). Data is from 1970 through October … Continue reading
Note: thanks to those who signed up to Allocate Smartly through my link. It’s provided a nice extra revenue stream that is much appreciated. One of the TAA strategies that I have often been asked about is Antonacci’s Composite Dual Momentum (ACDM from now on). I never got around to tracking or writing about it but now the the folks at Allocate Smartly have it covered. In this post I’ll highlight the key details of the strategy and it’s results using the recent blog post from Allocate Smartly. The ACDM strategy basically applies the dual momentum concept from Antonacci’s GEM strategy to … Continue reading
Here is the very quick version of the tactical asset allocation update for Oct. Signals are valid for until the end of the month. Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. One change for AGG3. VBK replaces VNQ. Two changes for AGG6. IAU and VEA replace VNQ and VGLT. For the Antonacci dual momentum GEM and GBM portfolios, GEM remains in SPY, and the bond portion of GBM is in CRED. The Antonacci tracking sheet shareable so you can see the portfolio details for yourself. The Bond 3 quant model, see spreadsheet, ranks the bond ETFs by 6 month … Continue reading