Tag Archives: SPY-UI

SPY-UI model update for April 2017

The unemployment report was released on Friday, April 9 2017. Here is the update for the SPY-UI model. There is so much noise out there on this report that its important to just ignore the noise and focus on the trend. Note: you don’t need fancy paid tools to track this model. You can use easy free tools like Stockcharts.com for example. I’ll do that below. Most ink on these reports is spilled over the headline total non-farm payrolls number. This is a very noisy number with a margin for error of about 100K jobs. It’s much better to focus … Continue reading

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SPY-UI indicator update for March 2017

On Friday, March 10, the unemployment rate (UER) for Feb 2017 was released by the BLS.  The UER improved to 4.7%. In this post I’ll update the SPY-UI indicator for March. I’ll also provide some new charts with historical data that will be useful in the future. The first thing we’ll look at is the latest UER with respect to its 12 month SMA. The chart below plots both of those along with the US recession boundaries and the SP500 monthly drawdowns. The chart goes back to 1948. For this month the UER at 4.7% is still below its 12 … Continue reading

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