Using economic indicators to time the market

If you pay attention to the financial market news you may have noticed a lot of attention being focused on the slowing US/Global economy and the implications it has for financial markets. Just do a search on ‘slowing global PMI’ and watch the hours waste away. Basically, the US/Global economy is slowing which means recession is right around the corner…

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Tactical asset allocation – may 2016 update

Here is the tactical asset allocation update for May 2016. Before I get into the updates for the month I want to share a must read post from Antonacci. In the post he lists some questions he often gets asked about markets and investing. Here they are; Question: How much do you think the stock market can drop? Response: 89%…

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The future of beta – slip sliding away…

Value, momentum, size, quality, volatility, etc as factors in investing are quite popular. They’ve produced significant outsized returns relative to benchmarks. Now, we even have Smart Beta funds and ETFs popping up all over to make taking advantage of factors super easy. That brings up the critical question every investor interested in taking advantage of factors in their portfolio should…

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Tactical asset allocation – March 2016 update

Happy Leap Day! Here is the tactical asset allocation update for March 2016. As I mentioned last couple of months, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates. I am also maintaining the old portfolio formats, in Yahoo Finance, for a while. Here is the link to the Yahoo data. Below are the updates for the AGG3, AGG6,…

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Comparing portfolio performance (1973 to 2015)

I’ve finally managed to gather enough portfolio performance data to out together this year’s portfolio comparison edition. I was able to add 2014 and 2015 data. Last year’s post is here. You can use last year’s post and the Portfolios page for portfolio definitions. I’ll present the comparison of the portfolios in a few ways. I also added a few…

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Tactical asset allocation – february 2016 update

Here is the tactical asset allocation update for February 2016. As I mentioned last month, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates. I am also maintaining the old portfolio formats, in Yahoo Finance, for a while. Here is the link to the Yahoo data. Lets dive right in. Below are the updates for the AGG3, AGG6, and…

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Quant strategies: 2015 performance review

Here are the 2015 total return and max drawdown numbers for the various quant strategies I track. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2014. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below I list various quant strategies along with…

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Tactical asset allocation – january 2016 update

Happy New Year everyone! Time to start fresh again in 2016. Here is the first tactical asset allocation update for 2016. As I mentioned last month, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates and also going to use a slightly different format for these monthly updates. I will also maintain the old portfolio formats, in…

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Tactical asset allocation – december 2015 update

Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for December 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. No changes for GTAA5. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio SHY went to cash which is basically no change. Now for the more aggressive GTAA AGG3 and AGG6…

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New portfolios page

To make finding basic information about the various portfolios I discuss on the blog I’ve created a new Portfolios page. This should especially help out new readers to the blog. The page lists the 3 major type of portfolios on the blog; buy and hold portfolios, tactical asset allocation portfolios, and quant investing portfolios. Hopefully, you find it useful. Let…

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