Tag Archives: Monte Carlo

Understanding modern retirement calculators

In today’s post I want to explain and demonstrate how modern retirement calculators work. There are two basic ways to calculate how much you can safely withdraw from your portfolio in retirement; looking backwards using historical data for past retirees and looking forward using possible future investment returns. On this blog I’ve pretty much only described the historical safe withdrawal rate (SWR) approach. That’s where the 4% SWR number comes from that you hear talked about all the time. Modern retirement calculators do not use this approach. They use a forward looking approach called Monte-Carlo analysis to come up with … Continue reading

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