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Tag Archives: investing
Before I start today’s post, I’d like to announce my plans for an economic trends newsletter. The newsletter will expand on the topics and concepts of using economic indicators to track the economy and more importantly to improve investing results through their use in quant or TAA investing systems. I’m looking for a handful or so of beta testers to flesh out the details of the newsletter for a few months before it goes live. If you’re interested drop me an email. On to today’s post… In this post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid June 2017. The … Continue reading
In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid May 2017. The final indicator for April was released yesterday. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with April data. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 2 of the indicators showed improvement, 4 showed some deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system to … Continue reading
In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid April 2017. The final 2 indicators for March were released this morning. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with March data. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. All of the 6 indicators remain green for this month. 3 of the indicators showed improvement, 3 showed deterioration. None are even near a warning signal. This also means that there is no trigger for the COMP indicator which means there is no possibility for the SPY-COMP system … Continue reading
Update: I updated the charts and some of the performance results on March 28, 2017. I found and corrected an error in the performance calculations. Conclusions remain the same. It’s finally time to start turning all the economic indicator stuff I’ve been posting on into something useful for investors. In this post I’ll introduce the SPY-COMP indicator and how it works as tool for entering and exiting investments. The mechanics of the SPY-COMP system are similar to the SPY-UI system I’ve posted on previously. The only difference is that the new system uses a composite of the top 6 economic … Continue reading
In today’s post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid March 2017. Each of the 6 indicators is updated with February data. Last month’s update is here. For background on the top 6 see here. The table below shows the current heatmap for the top 6 indicators. Just like last month all of the indicators are green. Here’s a brief update on each. Unemployment rate – Feb was another strong month for employment. UER is back down to 4.7%. Below it’s 12 month SMA. No signs of weakness in this indicator. Real retail sales – Feb’s year … Continue reading
The performance of value factors varies over time. Sometimes value is in favor. Sometimes it is out of favor. But overall value overall is one of the two single factors, along with momentum, that has withstood the test of time. But what if one way of expressing value in stocks has simply stopped working or is just nor working as well as in the past? That’s is what I’ll consider in this brief post. In particular, I’ll look at whether it is still worthwhile to use P/B in individual quant stock portfolios. Many of the quant stock models discussed on … Continue reading
It must be that time of the year again. Retirement hysteria time. Usually in the new year I start seeing a slew of articles on how your retirement is at risk, how you cannot possibly retire now, and the theme for the last few years – how high stock market valuations and low interest rates will guarantee that either you are going to work forever or you are going to retire with a much lower living standard. This time the offending piece was in Kiplinger’s of all places, which was brought to my attention by one my weekly econ reads, … Continue reading
A quick post on a new page I have added to the blog. In the top menu you will see a page called ‘Top 6 Economic Indicators“. On this page you will find FRED graphs of 6 economic indicators, updated automatically when new data is available. I’ll tell you a bit more about these indicators below and why they were chosen. First, there are a lot of economic indicators these days. There are individual indicators (we track 66 of them), like the unemployment rate, for very measuring very specific aspects of the economy, and composite indicators (made up of many individual … Continue reading
This is the first post on economic indicators. In this post we’ll share our top reads on the state of the US economy. Notice I say we, instead of I. In this new endeavor on tracking the economy I now have a partner. He happens to be my cousin and he is also an electrical engineer and even more of a geek than I am. I’ll talk about him more in the future. Before we dive into our top reads let me describe what we’re trying to do. What we’re trying to do is use economic indicators, individual and/or composite … Continue reading
Following up on my last post, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the performance of TAA strategies. In particular, I’ll take a look at the differences between the top performing TAA strategies and the bottom performing ones. There are some important points that come out of this analysis which I think are quite useful when deciding which TAA strategies are right for you. As in my last post… The data I’m using is from Allocate Smartly. I’ve taken return data for all the TAA strategies they track, 60/40, and the All Weather Portfolio (a globally diversified portfolio). Data is … Continue reading