TAA: choosing your first strategy

Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies have come a long way in the last few years. From a small corner of the financial blogosphere to basking in broad daylight. I’d like to think I had a small role to play in that but really it’s the result of the amazing work done by the likes of Meb Faber, Gary Antonacci, the…

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TAA vs buy and hold in overvalued markets (CAPE > 30 edition)

Personal note: Sorry for the long delay from posting. I had a death in the family this summer, a big overseas family wedding, and I’ve been working on getting my newsletter released, which I’ll announce in a later post. Now, I’m back. I was thinking this morning that with the increasing talk of market valuation, bubbles, etc. it would be…

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Portfolio sheets are back

Quick note. I have now embedded the Google sheets that contain the GTAA13, AGG3, AGG6, and Antonacci GEM, DMFI portfolios directly on the blog. I have upgraded the Google code a bit and implemented auto sort so they should be a bit more robust than in the past. Let’s hope Google cooporates. These are informational only. I don’t do any…

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TAA vs buy and hold in overvalued markets

US stocks are expensive. There seems to be article after article on the expensiveness of US stocks these days. Plus, bonds in general are really really expensive. Both US stocks and all bonds are in the top (90th+ percentile) tiers of expensiveness relative to history. As Cliff Asness of AQR points out, the problem is that they are both at…

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TAA in the real world: theory versus slippage

Today I want to talk about my friend Jose. About a year and half ago, after months of Q & A between us, Jose decided to implement Antonacci’s GEM portfolio in his IRA (see this post for a detailed description). This post describes his first 6 months in GEM, November 2015 through April 2016. I think there are some good…

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Ranking the top and bottom TAA strategies

Following up on my last post, I’d like to take a deeper dive into the performance of TAA strategies. In particular, I’ll take a look at the differences between the top performing TAA strategies and the bottom performing ones. There are some important points that come out of this analysis which I think are quite useful when deciding which TAA…

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TAA portfolios: Antonacci’s Composite Dual Momentum

Note: thanks to those who signed up to Allocate Smartly through my link. It’s provided a nice extra revenue stream that is much appreciated. One of the TAA strategies that I have often been asked about is Antonacci’s Composite Dual Momentum (ACDM from now on). I never got around to tracking or writing about it but now the the folks at Allocate…

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Tactical asset allocation – oct 2016 update

Here is the very quick version of the tactical asset allocation update for Oct. Signals are valid for until the end of the month. Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. One change for AGG3. VBK replaces VNQ. Two changes for AGG6. IAU and VEA replace VNQ and VGLT. For the Antonacci…

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Tactical asset allocation – august 2016 update

Here is the tactical asset allocation update for August 2016. Below is the snapshot for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. This is a new version of the sheet. Google updates the Sheets program every so often and old version of sheets just stop working. That happened this month so I had to do a new…

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Tactical asset allocation – july 2016 update

Here is the tactical asset allocation update for July 2016. If you didn’t listen to the news all month or didn’t check prices during the month then you would think it was a pretty uneventful month and overall quite a decent month for almost all asset classes. Unfortunately, like most people you probably at least paid some passing interest to…

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