Tag Archives: Allocation

Building a portfolio from individual quant strategies

In this post I want to briefly return to putting together quantitative strategies into a an overall portfolio. I wrote about this in 2014 but I have better tools and more data now. Basically let’s build a portfolio of quant strategies that reflects a typical 60/40 US stock US bond benchmark and compare portfolio statistics to the SP500 and to the 60/40 benchmark. First things first. Picking the quant strategies (you can find the background to all the strategies in the Portfolios section of the blog). You can definitely spend a ton of time here and go way off into … Continue reading

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Comparing portfolio performance (1973 to 2015)

I’ve finally managed to gather enough portfolio performance data to out together this year’s portfolio comparison edition. I was able to add 2014 and 2015 data. Last year’s post is here. You can use last year’s post and the Portfolios page for portfolio definitions. I’ll present the comparison of the portfolios in a few ways. I also added a few new fields this year. I added the last 3 yr, 5 yr, and 10 yr performance for each portfolio and performance in the last bull market and last bull/bear market cycle. Now, on to the data. First, lets present the … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – february 2016 update

Here is the tactical asset allocation update for February 2016. As I mentioned last month, I am now using a new data source for the portfolio updates. I am also maintaining the old portfolio formats, in Yahoo Finance, for a while. Here is the link to the Yahoo data. Lets dive right in. Below are the updates for the AGG3, AGG6, and GTAA13 portfolios. The source data can be found here. The big change here is the use of FINVIZ data and more importantly that these signals are valid after every trading day. So, while I’ll maintain these month end updates this means … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – october 2015 update

A lot of volatility this month in the equity markets. So far it looks like the portfolio signals to go to cash have been valid. Of course, that’s only half the battle. We’ll see what October brings, a historically positive month for equities. Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for October 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. GTAA5 is now 20% invested with IEF going to invested this month. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio there were no changes this month. Now for … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – september 2015 update

Wow! What a month. After 3 years of a steady grind higher there is finally some significant volatility in the market. Several of the portfolios had a drawdown of about 6% during the month along with the major indices. If this is a surprise or it seems excessive, it’s not. Historically the portfolios have exhibited drawdowns up to 20%. With such big swings the portfolio risk management rules kicked in and now the allocations are mainly cash. Now comes the interesting part – to see if these signals are head fakes or the start of something significant. Here are the … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – july 2015 update

Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for July 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. There was one change in the GTAA5 portfolio. Bonds (IEF) went to cash this month. GTAA5 is now 40% invested and 60% cash. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio there were no changes this month. The TAA version of the Permanent Portfolio is 50% invested and 50% in cash just like last month. Now for the more aggressive GTAA AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios. There is one change for AGG3 this month. … Continue reading

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Relative momentum vs timing in the GTAA AGG portfolios

In today’s post I want to take a quick look at the role of timing in the GTAA AGG portfolios. What impact does timing have on the performance statistics of the AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios versus not using timing at all in the portfolios. The results will surely surprise some. The dominant impact to the performance of the AGG portfolios is relative strength, aka relative momentum. This should not come as a surprise as momentum is the most powerful and persistent market anomaly by far. The addition of timing using the 10 mo SMA signal in the AGG portfolios is meant … Continue reading

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Tactical asset allocation – june 2015 update

Here are the tactical asset allocation updates for June 2015. All portfolio updates are online as part of Paul’s GTAA 13 Portfolio New sheet. First, for the basic portfolios – the GTAA5 and the Permanent Portfolio. Only one change in the GTAA5 portfolio. REITs (VNQ) went to cash this month. GTAA5 is now 60% invested and 40% cash. For the timing version of the Permanent Portfolio long term bonds (VGLT) went to cash this month. The TAA version of the Permanent Portfolio is now 50% invested and 50% in cash. Now for the more aggressive GTAA AGG3 and AGG6 portfolios. Another big turnover in AGG3 this … Continue reading

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A better benchmark – the global market portfolio

Apologies for the light posting of late. I’ve been visiting with family down in south Florida the last 10 days or so enjoying some great catching up time, my niece’s high school graduation, and way to much good Cuban food. Priorities you know! In today’s quick post I want to touch on what ‘should’ be the benchmark portfolio for investors. There are a lot of strong opinions out there about on this topic but the basic gist for us here in the US is that our standard 60/40 portfolio benchmark is too US centric and does not accurate reflect the … Continue reading

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A comprehensive look at market timing

In this post I’ll summarize a recent and very comprehensive study on market timing. It is probably the most comprehensive and robust look at market timing yet. Market timing is one of the biggest potential problems and complaints with TAA portfolios as I highlighted recently. Everyone wants a definitive answer – does it work or doesn’t it? As you might expect, there is something in the results for everyone, the die hard buy and holders and the die hard market timers. For those interested in implementing TAA portfolios there are several surprising findings in the study that are very applicable to … Continue reading

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