Category Archives: Stocks

Quant strategies: Q1 2016 performance

Here are the Q1 2016 total return and max drawdown numbers for the various quant strategies I track. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2015. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below I list various quant strategies along with their YTD performance and drawdowns. Also, listed are various benchmark indices. Overall, the start of 2016 is working quite well for the various quant strategies. The utility strategy is leading the pack with a huge Q1. Only the microcap … Continue reading

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Quantitative investing – going global

One of the great things about learning how to do your own Quantitative screening is that once you’ve mastered the basics and learned how to implement popular screens you can then customize screens to fit your investment style, new ideas, etc… In this post I’ll take a look at how we can modify the basic O’Shaugnnessy Value Composite 2 and Trending Value screens  to look outside the US for stocks. The basics of implementing the O’Shaughnessy screens can be found in this post and the previous posts referenced there. The inspiration for this post comes from the apparent value in … Continue reading

Posted in Portfolio, Quant Investing, Stocks | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

Fairfax Financial 2012 results update

It’s been a long time since I’ve written about Fairfax Financial. Last time was in October 2011 (see here for previous posts). Fairfax recently held their annual shareholder meeting which had some great information about the company, its results, and why it is a good investment. I’ll discuss some of the highlights of the meeting in this post. First, my investment thesis for Fairfax is pretty simple. Great long term returns, a super conservative and competent management team, and a leveraged but hedged investment. I’ll explain. In 27 years, Fairfax has generated a compound return of 23.3% a year on … Continue reading

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MLP Jan 2013 results – second best ever

Just wanted to update the January effect results for the MLP sector. As I noted in previous posts January tends to be the best performing month for the MLP sector. January 2013 ended up being the 2nd best January for MLPs ever, with a total return of 12.6% Here is an updated chart as of Friday’s close.   Hopefully, you participated in at least some of that move. Now, the important point – history says that strong a strong January leads to strong full year results. And the stronger the January the higher the full year results. This should not … Continue reading

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MLPs off to a rip roaring January

MLPs didn’t have their best year in 2012, being up just 4.8% on a total return basis, vs the SP500 at 16%. It was the first time in 12 years that MLPs underperformed the SP500. That makes me even more interested in them for 2013. Lets look at where MLPs stand today. At the end of Nov 2012 I wrote about the compelling value in the MLP sector and how they could be setting up for a nice rest of 2012 and early 2013. Also, as I’ve written in the past January tends to be the best month of the … Continue reading

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MLPs in the bargain bin – setting up for Q4/Q1 rally

We’re in the midst of a post election, fiscal cliff sell off with the stock market trying decide which way its going to head based on every single new headline out of Washington. Its usually best to avoid getting  into this tug-of-war and wait until things settle out, unless you have a very short time frame. With that in mind I’ve been looking at MLP valuations and think there is some compelling value in the sector an that it is potentially setting up for a nice rally for the remainder of the year and into Q1, in particular if some … Continue reading

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AFL reports solid Q3 – still cheap with at least 40% upside

Aflac (AFL) reported very solid results for Q3 2012 on October 23rd. See my last post on Aflac here for previous thoughts on the company. The company continues to perform very well and still represents a compelling value at current prices and more importantly future results look to be even better. Lets take a closer look. The summary from the Q3 press release gives you the highlights. The full release is here: AFLAC INCORPORATED ANNOUNCES RECORD THIRD QUARTER RESULTS, RAISES 2012 OPERATING EPS OUTLOOK, AFFIRMS 2013 OPERATING EPS OBJECTIVE, UPWARDLY REVISES AFLAC JAPAN SALES OUTLOOK, INCREASES QUARTERLY CASH DIVIDEND 6.1% … Continue reading

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Kinder Morgan reports spectacular Q3 2012 Results

Kinder Morgan kicked off MLP earnings season on October 17 with a very strong report. I’ll briefly discuss the report and then discuss valuation and expected future returns for the Kinder Morgan family of companies. Kinder Morgan’s Q3 2012 earnings were very strong. The full press release is here for KMP, here for KMI, and here for EPB. A few words from the release and from Rich Kinder, the Chairman sums up the results nicely. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Increases Quarterly Distribution to $1.26 Per Unit Distribution 9% Higher Than Third Quarter 2011HOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Oct. 17, 2012– Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE: … Continue reading

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The 4 best months for MLPs

I love taking advantage of market inefficiencies or quirks; spinoff mispricings, CEF discounts, etc. Its one of the most entertaining and profitable of past times. I’ll share one with you today in the MLP sector and I hope it makes you some money in the future. Lets dive in. What if I told you the majority of historical MLP returns, since 1995,  have come in just 4 months of the year? And its the same 4 months every year in which some key event happens. Take a look at the chart below. The chart gives it away but the best … Continue reading

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Rise of the nerds – tech stock dividends

Technology stocks are the largest dividend payers in the S&P500. Really? Yes. With the significant raise in Cisco’s (CSCO) dividend last week, the technology sector became the largest paying dividend sector, on a percentage basis, of all the S&P500 industry sectors (see this article). Apple’s (AAPL) initiation of a dividend earlier this year didn’t hurt either. Lets dig down a little deeper into this development and see what that could mean for income investors. First, this development has been coming for a while. I first posted on this trend almost 2 years ago now. Basically, the tech industry is maturing, … Continue reading

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