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Category Archives: Retirement
Compounded annual returns are the crack of the investment world. Wall Street is the pusher and investors are the addicts. Investment companies and investors focus on the annual return metric as the most important in a portfolio to the long term detriment of most investors. This myopic focus on annual returns is bad for investors’ wealth wether they are in the wealth building phase or the withdrawal phase of their investment lives. Lets look at how bad and expensive this unhealthy obsession can be. First, lets look at the case of the investor building future wealth. In a world where … Continue reading
I often get asked “how do I get started with an investment portfolio?”. The best answer, but not very helpful, is to learn about building and investing in a diversified buy and hold portfolio for the long term. A very true statement but it usually leaves the investor still looking for answers. In this post I plan to be much more helpful in providing guidance for investors either looking to get started or for investors looking for a better approach to building investment portfolios than what they are using now. For this post I will rely heavily on a new book … Continue reading
In today’s post I want to address another approach to dealing with the prospect of poor future returns. In my last post I described the prospect of poor future returns and different risk-based portfolio strategies in such an environment. Today I’ll consider an alternative. The alternatives are various dedicated income approaches that put the retirement income stream at the top of the priority list. For the most part these approaches have been documented only in obscure research papers but thanks to a few retirement researchers that is starting to change. Let’s take a look at some of these safety-first approaches. … Continue reading
There’s been a lot of chatter recently about asset valuations, in particular US stocks and US bonds, and their impact of future returns. This is nothing new. It just seems to get louder at the start of every new year. I’ve discussed this topic before on the blog. Last time here. Basically, my point was that we may indeed, in fact it’s probable, be facing poor future returns – a least for the next 10 years, but that doesn’t mean that the 4% SWR rule is dead. In fact the 4% SWR implies even worse returns than people are forecasting … Continue reading
Time for another one of those yearly updates. In this post I’ll update the data for the worst times in history to retire by adding 2014 data to the 4 worst retirement portfolios in history. See here for last year’s update. The worst time to retire since 1929 turns out not to be the Great Depression, as most people would believe. In fact, the worst time to retire in history was 1966, followed by the Great Depression year of 1929. The SWR (safe withdrawal rate) of 4.39% for a 70% stock 30% bond portfolio is solely determined by the retirement … Continue reading
This post has nothing to do with asset prices, valuation, or timing the market as the title may have led you to believe. It has to do with investor psychology and behavior. Over the years I’ve wondered if certain types of people would be happier if they didn’t invest in anything but cash. Not ‘better off’ mind you just happier and still able to meet their financial goals – like a successful happy retirement. Then I said, “I have the data for that analysis”. Let’s take a look at the kind of people I’m talking about. You’ll probably see a bit of … Continue reading
Today I wanted to talk about the forecasting of future returns and more importantly what implications future returns have for SWRs (Safe Withdrawal Rates). As I showed in my last post, the first 10 year period real return in retirement is the best predictor of SWRs for 30 year retirement periods. Thus by creating a model for returns for the next 10 years based on where assets are priced today we can get a better idea as to the applicability of the traditional 4% SWR for future retirees. There’s a been lot of discussion over the last couple of years in the financial blogosphere … Continue reading
The starting year of retirement makes a huge difference in the success or failure of a retirement plan. This is the key difference between the accumulation phase of investing and the withdrawal phase of investing. Yet the majority of investing writing does not take this key difference into account when speaking of returns, asset allocation, planning, etc. So, lets look at how important the starting year of retirement is to a successful outcome and what potential a retiree can do to mitigate this risk. Why does the starting year of retirement matter in the first place? It is because retirement involves … Continue reading
Hard to believe it has been 2 years since I last updated my recipe for a happy retirement. And 2 years before that I had the original post. Every 2 years seems like a nice interval to revisit my thoughts in this area. We are now getting close to completing 5 years on the road living in our RV and 9 years since we left the daily 9-5 grind and started on this great new life adventure. It’s been an amazing adventure that continues to improve. I can’t recommend it enough. I’ll also add that in the past 2 years … Continue reading
Today I finally get around to doing something I mentioned way back in my first post on quantitative investing. Quant portfolios can help an investor handily beat the market over time and often with even lower risk. If that is the case then how could they impact safe withdrawal rates (SWRs) in retirement? Lets find out. I’ve sort of already shown the effect of quant or automatic investing systems on SWRs in my posts on the various flavor of the IVY portfolios. For example, you can more than double your SWR with certain versions of the IVY portfolios. Beyond the … Continue reading