My name is Paul Novell. I left the semiconductor industry, at 41, to pursue a more independent, nomadic life. This came after two attempts at “retiring early” (starting in January 2006) and being scared back into the work force. Since early 2010 I’ve been fully committed to the nomadic financially independent lifestyle. Since 2006 my main source of income is from my investments. And my sole source of income since 2010. I’ve been withdrawing from my portfolio every year since the beginning of 2006. Some call this early retirement. Not me. I’m not retired at all. I’m pursuing a financially independent lifestyle with investing as my main funding source.

My mission in this blog is to discuss all topics related to living off your investment assets and making sure they last as long as you need them to last, as I personally live this experiment.

My back ground is in Electrical Engineering (M.S. and B.S) specializing in semiconductor physics. I also have a Masters in Investment Management from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. My hobby has always been investing. I bought my first bond, IBM, at age 18.

Currently, my wife and I are living in our RV and traveling the country looking for a place to settle down. It may take a few years. At the end of 2014 we’ll finish our 5th year on the road. My wife writes a blog of our RV travels which you can read here. Enjoy.

2014 update: last fall we did a video interview with our friends Technomadia which you can find here. And we are now in year 5 of RVing with no plans to settle down any time soon.

109 Responses to About

  1. Gene McKenna says:

    you guys are my heroes!

  2. David Fleischer says:

    Love the photo. Is that your dog? A border collie? I am the part time owner of a border collie. My ex girlfriend and I got him together. Even though we split up, I have visitation rights and have him a couple nights a week, depending on my travel. Unfortunately, I still live in an apartment so having him full time is not feasible… she has a house with a yard…

    • libertatemamo says:

      Yep, that’s my dog. Or our dog I should day… 🙂 Yep, she is a border collie mix, I think she has some cattle dog in her too.

  3. J Carroll says:

    Paul, I just found you on the internet today and have enjoyed reading your previous posts. Like you, I am retired, but a few years older (62). I especially enjoyed the post on options (11/15/10) which addressed your covered put strategy. I look forward to a post on covered calls.

    • libertatemamo says:

      J, thanks for the comment. Options are a great retirement income strategy when used correctly and conservatively. I’ll work on that covered call post and will try to have it up by year end.

  4. Dave Manning says:

    Hey paul would love to catch up with you an nina we met you on the rv board lol but i too love to invest actually im always about the risk lol where in fl jacksonville i guess your wintering here ! it cold brr i would love to talk investments with you we do both currency and stocks Happy new year ! hey r u 2 on facebook ! oh an we travel with 16 paws !lol dave

  5. Susan T says:

    We just found the RV blog this morning and love it then notice the investment link, love it too! I always wanted my full time job to be managing my own money so I could live off my savings. We are very close, we are both retired, early 50’s, and ready to head out in our 40′ Blue Bird, one dog, two dogs, by April 2011. Just need to finish moving out of house. I look forward digging into your sites, thanks for posting them!

    • libertatemamo says:

      That’s great Susan. Best of luck moving out of the house. Its a bit nerve racking of a process but very cleansing. I hope you find some useful info to help you out on your investments.


  6. Max says:

    Paul, you and Nina are living the dream. Every time I decide to retire I get pulled back into another “opportunity”. Between my last two companies, we did take our bus to Alaska for a three month vacation. Safe travels to you.

    • libertatemamo says:

      Thanks Max. I was like you for two years. I first tried to retire at 40 then ended up doing 2 more ‘opportunities’, startups, before I finally called it quits two years later. It’s never an easy call but I’m glad I finally did it. Hey, I can always go back and go after all those great opportunities.

      Best of luck to you.


  7. achit patel says:


    Is it possible to access some older blog entries from late last year?
    I was trying to show someone those articles but I can no longer access them
    from the current Blog.

    Nice work and best of luck to you.


    • libertatemamo says:

      Achit, thanks for the comment. I added an archives section in the right hand margin of the blog. That should give you access to all the historical posts. Thanks for pointing that out to me.


  8. Mark Sheingold says:

    Thanks for trying to educate us.

    Good luck with your investments.

    Out of curiosity, how much money do you think one needs to live off his investments, if he is skilled at investing.

    • libertatemamo says:

      Mark. I’ve written about that in the past. Check out this link; http://investingforaliving.us/?s=swr its the results of searching for ‘swr’ on my blog. SWR stands for safe withdrawal rate and it is the maximum amount you can withdraw from a portfolio annually and have it last through retirement.

      The short answer is that 4% is a good rule of thumb to use for how much you can take out. That means that in order to retire you should have 25 times (1/4%) what you think you need your income to be in retirement. So, if you think you need $40K a year in retirement then you need to have $1M to retire.

      Hope that helps. In some of the other posts I look at ways to enhance that 4% SWR through other methods.


  9. Mark Sheingold says:

    Hi Paul,

    Thanks for your link. I will read it, and if I have anymore questions, I will post again.

    Thanks again.

  10. Chris Ayoub says:

    Hi Paul,
    I very much enjoyed reading some of your position pieces on investing for retirement. Having spent 23+ years running mutual funds for a Wall Street firm, I too decided it was time to give retirement a try and see if the grass is really greener on the other side. Also, my youngest was about to come into this world and, unlike my two older children, this time I wanted to be a bigger part of his day to day life.
    Recently, my wife and I made the decision to get an RV and explore this beautiful country of ours, which is how I found your blog. Your wife gave me some good info on a place to stay near New Orleans and I noticed a link to your website. I would be interested in your opinion on the current state of economy and stock market valuations and the implications that corrective actions to the budget deficit and national debt levels will have on them. I worry that by forcing investors to seek out a reasonable return on their savings via stock investing, we could find ourselves in a corrective action that will make the last few bubbles look like minor events. I look forward to your future postings. Chris

    • libertatemamo says:

      Hey Chris. Glad to meet another Rver and fellow investor. The RV lifestyle is great. It grows and grows on you for sure.

      Your questions would be great discussed in a dark smoky bar with several glasses of whiskey on the side…. In general, I don’t worry that much about the macro picture. That’s one of the big reasons I’m not an indexer. I try and keep my head down and focus on individual investments. I think I can invest profitably in most environments. Having said that I am a bit of a macro junkie on the side, more of a personal hobby, so the macro picture does tilt my view of investments. I think the world economy is soft but not as bad as most people think. I think the markets are overvalued but not too much and I think there is relative value in the US, particularly in large caps, versus foreign markets. I don’t like bonds except munis, the selloff has been overdone. I’m not too worried about all the political stuff going on. In the long term it will work out even if its really bumpy along the way. But bumpy is good to generate good returns if one is patient.

      Maybe we’ll run into each other on the road somewhere.


      • Chris Ayoub says:

        Hey Paul,
        I like your approach to generate income via an option play in some of the less volatile large caps that offer a reasonable premium. My intermediate term view on the market is likely more pessimistic than yours but being in too much cash has been, and may likely for the near term, remain painful. Even though the trend has clearly been up, the presence of light volumes during this move up makes me wonder how bad the correction would be if, or when, the trend changes. Maybe it’s time to meet the trend halfway and take modest positions in a number of large cap dividend plays and/or the MLP’s and REITS. Any ones you particularly like? Thanks for your thoughts.


        • libertatemamo says:

          Chris, I’m always braced for a 50% correction in the short term. Yet another reason that I favor good dividend payers. MLPs in general are priced a bit above their historical averages but there are still some decent values I think; KMR, KMI, and ETP look ok here. My favorite MLP, EPD, seems a bit pricey although they are executing better than any other MLP right now so they may be worth it. I still like mortgage REITs, NLY and CIM, with the yield curve still so steep. In the normal dividend space I like NGG, MO. JNJ seems awful cheap although they can’t seem to get out of their own way. In large cap tech INTC and MSFT are very cheap too.

          I agree with you that nothing seems super cheap except maybe large cap tech and some one offs like JNJ or MDT with current issues. Outside of my option trading I’m not taking any new long term positions, just continuing to reinvest dividends.

          Hope that helps a bit.


  11. Bruce J says:

    Thanks for the insight. After three years of trading and investing at work with positive results I finally gave up the job and am going to invest full time. I only have about 550k to invest and I would like to bring in closer to 20% a year on that. I realize I will have to be more active and take on a bit more risk then you do, but I think it can be done. I will be following you and your info for sure….again, thanks for taking the time to write this blog.

    • libertatemamo says:

      Sure thing Bruce. 20% is do-able. I use a portion of my portfolio to trade to generate income for living expenses. 20% is my return goal for that piece. A suggestion I would make is try to consider the 20% an average target. If the market is in a position where 10% is all it will give reasonably its not worth pressing. Usually its not too long before the environment changes and 30% returns are achievable. Best of luck.


      • Bruce J says:

        Thanks Paul. Good advice….seems like right now the 10% is a good target. The MLP’s have taken a hit and if they get back going again 10% there shouldn’t be a problem. I picked a few up over the last week in an attempt to benefit from a rebound.

        • libertatemamo says:

          Good move. I’m pretty heavily weighted in MLPs so I’m waiting for a steeper correction though I don’t think it will come, With 6% yields or so and 5% div growth, 10% is a slam dunk in this sector.


  12. John Geeting says:

    Dude, you are living the dream! I need to get the kids off to college before I follow your lead.

    • libertatemamo says:

      Thanks John. Not having kids definitely helped, although it wasn’t by choice, When life throws you curves what are ya going to do?….learn how to hit curves…..

      Best of luck.


  13. jake says:

    To All Those Would Be Retirees:

    I took an early retirement 7 years ago at age 45. I left the USA and decided to live in Thailand. I live off my dividends and ONLY my dividends. But, my overhead lifestyle is very modest, yet all my needs and wants are satisfied. I spend at least 3 hours a day in reseaching the market and often put in as many as 10 hours when I get “all wound up”. This is the best “job” I’ve ever had!

    I recommend all who visit this site and are considering a retirement grounded in living off of dividends to not be scared from pursing their dream. It is certaintly intimidating for the aveage employee to go out on their own, but if you can keep your overhead low, and you find your own investing strategy/method that suits your personality, then all thats left is motivation.

    By the way, when I retired, I wasnt even close to owning a million bucks (and still far from it) so dont listen to those who say you need ” X” amount in the bank before you can “drop out”.

    And, great job on your site.

  14. Bruce J says:

    Do you disclose your holdings and if not maybe just your portfolio allocations? I love your goal of increasing net worth after all spending..simple and attainable. Thanks

    • libertatemamo says:

      Hey Bruce. I do disclose holdings and allocation every once in a while. I don’t make it a habit. I don’t want to run a stock picking/trading blod. Ideally I want to show investors how to do things for themselves. You’ll see some more stock type posts in the near future.


  15. Bruce says:

    Thanks Paul. I agree with you. I would rather know how to fish then be given the fish!

  16. Hi Paul: I just found your blog and share some of your investment interests (http://wp.me/P1LlDo-4h). However, my investment goal is a 30% CAGR with full understanding of the difficulty in acheiving that goal. My 5-year CAGR is -5.8% (compared to S&P500 TR -0.25%) due to bad trading behavior that I plan to correct.

    • libertatemamo says:

      Hey Doug, thanks for the comment. I like your self description of being an active senior investor. For my trading portfolio, which like yours is a percentage of my retirement assets, my annual BHAG (Big Hairy Audacious Goal) is 30% on my trades.


  17. Eric Wubbena says:

    just found your blog! Love it! I am self employed and have 5 years until the kids are gone…my wife and I have set out to pursue a life that is similar to yours. Haven’t seen an updated post since Jan. Hope all is well.

  18. Deron D says:

    Hello, Paul –

    Just wondering if there is a way to connect with you privately via phone / email for a casual chit chat on investing for the long-term.

    I work in the field as well and looking to connect with you to bounce some ideas, share thoughts, and explore possibilities.

    Worst case, we each have new acquaintance in the field, no? 🙂


  19. Bruce says:

    Paul. If you are ever in Houston texas give me a call and we can play a round of gf at my
    Club in The Woodlands.

  20. Del Clark says:

    Hi Paul,

    I’m eager for your next post and i would like to learn more about your options money management strategy. Thanks!

  21. Malcolm says:

    Very interesting I have followed your RV travels for the past year. We spend 5 – 8 months each year in our 5th Wheel. Investments have always been left in the hands of a financial advisor. Your blog has raised my i.terest level. Thanks.

  22. Mike Tritton says:

    Paul, I found your site two weeks ago and such is the quality of the material/commentary I’ve now got a small problem in that its keeping me up a night trying to get through it all 🙂 I have to say in the past I’ve paid money for material that doesn’t even come close to your content.

    Many thanks!

    / Mike

  23. Kerry says:

    Thanks Paul for the great insight on the market and especially the Ivy portfolio. Curious……is any percentage variance in the SMA a sell/invest signal or do you set a minimum before you trigger a change in position?

    • libertatemamo says:

      Hi Kerry,

      The buy or sell signals in the IVY timing portfolio are very specific. At the end of the month if the closing price is above the 10 month SMA, by any amount – even a $0.01, its a buy signal or a stay invested signal. And vice versa if the closing price is below the 10 month SMA.

      Hope that answers your question. If not let me know.


  24. Bryce Cannon says:

    Paul – I recently discovered your site researching information on the Ivy Portfolio (which I use to manage the retirement assets of my mother-in-law). You’re to be commended for sharing your insight with the rest of us. I was wondering if you had a spreadsheet/tool that you used (and wouldn’t mind sharing) that tracked SWR, CWR, investment performance, etc. She’s retiring at the end of the year and I’d like to have a tool to show her where she stands.


    • libertatemamo says:

      Hi Bryce, Thanks. I have an excel sheet that could be useful I think. I need to simplify it a bit but it could help you start out.

      Should I just email it to you?


      • Jeanne says:

        Hi Paul,

        I am also interested in an investment tracking tool and would like to get a copy of what you are offering to Bruce. I’m exploring a few of the strategies you highlighted during the month of June. Thank you so much!


        • libertatemamo says:

          Jeanne, its not an investment tracking tool. Its a simple spreadsheet that tracks retirement withdrawal rates. Let me know if you’re still interested.


      • Jeanne says:

        Yes, that was my assumption. Xcel spreadsheets are great tools to use because of their simplicity and adaptability! Thanks so much. My email is 4jcallahan (at) gmail.com

  25. mike bobal says:

    I discovered your blog be reviewing full time rv sites. I have been practicing as similar approach to yours for the last 6 years.. I presently own a business but derive my living expenses from my option income. I plan on retiring in 5 years at 62.

    It is good to see that someone has retired using this approach. It has enabled me to save my income generated from my business.We plan on full timing when we retire.

    Looking forward to reading more from your blogs.

  26. Hi Paul, thanks for your blog. Have you backtested or seen anyone that has the AAG3 IVY portfolio back? I have seen several references using etfreplay but the 2008 results are far different than the book. I am trying to find an excel spreadsheet which reconciles to Faber’s paper here http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461 page 52.

    Thanks for any leads from Paul or your many followers.


    • libertatemamo says:

      Daniel, yes, I’ve backtested the AGG3 to 1999 and have similar results to Meb’s. The results are not exact but they are close enough I think. I use Portfolio123.


  27. Paul, lots of great info here, thank you. I recently was tasked with the job of managing two different retirement accounts and i really like the IVY BH Income with 14 positions. Do I just divide the portfolio dollars i have by 14 and buy or do I divide and wait for the 200 day moving average signal to buy?

    • libertatemamo says:

      Hi Bjedz. I assume you’re referring to this post. For your first question – No, the allocation to each ETF is listed in the table in the post, For example, DVY gets an allocation of 5%. You don’t just divide the money by 14. Second, I meant for this to be a buy and hold portfolio and not one for the moving average to be used on. While you can definitely do that, you lose some of the benefit of the increased yields of this portfolio. For your second question, if the MA signal for the ETF is on sell then yes you wait for a buy signal. If the MA signal is already on buy you would go ahead and buy the ETF. If you are worried about valuation for that ETF, you could wait for a sell, then a new buy signal before entering. Over the long run it won’t make much difference.


      • Great, thanks Paul, your blog has helped me tremendously. On a side note, that GTAA 3 looks very promising! 56% for an upside best and only a 4% worst year. That seems too good to be true. I did notice MTUM was thinly traded, is there a replacement for that?

        • libertatemamo says:

          You can use a growth ETF to replace MTUM if you like although I think MTUM is well constructed. It is small and thinly traded so my concern is it will not be around for long.

  28. Rodney Druschel says:

    Paul – Hope this finds you well & enjoying life. I found your site just yesterday. About a year ago, you said you would most likely personally follow AGG3 & post the month end results. Have you done that &, if so, is the monthly data on the website? If you’re not using AGG3, where can I find the info on the Portfolio123 you refer to in May 10 post? Thanks for your continuing counsel for all us early retirees or those aspiring to do so !

  29. Finally took a look at your blog. Amazing…I’m trying to grasp it!
    Nina’s blog is easier to read and now I see how she gets away for her solo adventures! Lol!
    Keep up the good work!

  30. Pico says:

    Paul, I was looking at your google shared drive data and did not see return data showing up? Am I missing something?

    I do see 2014 for 3 and 6.

    Did you have something that showed your 5YR return?


  31. outwestbound says:


    Thanks for sharing so much great info! Do you recommend any particular online trading platform?


    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      There are several good discount brokers out there. My personal choice is TD Ameritrade because I think they have a nice tradeoff between features and pricing. Many others use Schwab. I also know people who use Interactive Broker and are quite happy with them.


      • outwestbound says:

        Thanks Paul. I have some experience with TD, which acted as custodian on some managed stuff I’ve worked with. The manager gave me a client log on with limited access, but I liked TD. I was leaning that way. Thanks again.

  32. Aprillynn Sanchez says:


    My name is Aprillynn, I’m a 23 yr old Speech Teacher from South Texas with a newly found passion for investment banking. I’ve stumbled across your blog after stumbling across your full time RV-ing blog, which is simply delightful. After only coming across the travel blog because it’s a dream of mine to do exactly what you and your wife are accomplishing. I like to think of it as thriving. So I googled, as I usually do, “Full-time RV before retirement” and voila!
    In hopes of decent retirement and financial freedom before 50 I have begun maxing out a Roth IRA and will move on to a brokerage account in the next 8-12 months. Also, looking to take on a little risk in real estate, purchasing a 4plex here at home. I have a financial advisor who is patient with me, haha, and always keeps me grounded. Now, I always like to do my research and take on different opinions, what would be my next step, in order to guarantee my plan of teaching for 9 more years, then being able to own 1-2 apartment complexes on top of living off of my investments?
    Thank you for taking your time to entertain my thoughts and doubts.

    Bright-eyed and inspired,

    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Aprillynn, well you’re well on your way to your goals by starting so early. A couple of things I would point out – your success will primarily be determined by how much you can save for the next 9 years and how little you can spend. 9 years of investing won’t do as mush as saving a ton and spending little. Not saying its not important, it’s just not that much time for compounding to make a huge difference. So, that’s where I would recommend to really focus. Take a look at Mr Money Moustache’s blog and community. I think you’ll find a lot of kindred spirits there.

      On the investing side I’d recommend learning first about diversification, keeping fees down, and examples of the best buy and hold portfolios out there like the Permanent Portfolio. Once you’re comfortable with those then you can move on to the tactical asset allocation models that I discuss on the blog.


  33. Gabriel Craft says:

    Thank you for living your lives intentionally. I am feeling empowered. Alek Lisefski of The Tiny Project brought me here. I offer you thanks from Ofunato, Japan. 🙂 ~Gabriel Craft

  34. Hi Paul,

    Really enjoy your blog. You are helping a lot of people, including me.

    I am new to dividend investing but here is my question: How do you track the dividend side of the portfolio so year to date and year to year gains are accurately reflected.

    Many thanks,


    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Thanks Paul. If you use dividend adjusted prices to calculate return, the prices already include the dividend paid, so your return will be a true total return which includes the dividend yield. Most tools these days report dividend adjusted prices by default.


  35. david hilliard says:

    I found your site by doing a search for 10 mo SMA. After seeing what you are doing I am curious if you follow any particular quants. It seems that many are or have in the last few year come to some of the same conclusions about index investing. There are some who are also adjusting their allocations by using some form of momentum. The jest of my question is really are those in the tactical allocation camp doing much the same thing. Meb Faber would be one example, are you familiar with his work. Thanks David

    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Hi David,

      If you read through my old posts you will see tons of references to the top quants and TAA guys out there. Faber, Antonacci, GestaltU, Alpha Architect, and O’Shaughnessy are my top go to sources. That is where all my model portfolios are derived from.


      • David Hilliard says:

        Thanks for the reply. I am learning the value of this idea or method and your site has been very helpful. David

  36. Bill Rouleau says:

    Hi Paul –
    New to your site and wanted to find the allocation percentages for the 13 portfolio that takes the top 3 asset classes. Instead of using the 13 portfolio’s “Buy and Hold” percentages, do I allocate 100% of my portfolio to only those top 3 asset classes each month?
    Where can I find the “rules” for the various portfolios?

    Have a beautiful day where ever you are!
    Bill R – south FL

  37. Graham says:

    Hi I really enjoy your site. I am just wondering where you get your data for asset backtests. I have found sources for a few of Faber’s assets back to 1970s but I cannot get foreign bonds or the Goldman commodities. Any tips?

    Thanks for all your awesome content

    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      For backtests from 1999 onward I use Portfolio123.com. For longer backtests I use the same public data that’s available to all; Faber, Shiller, etc… I have found MSCI has decent foreign data so try that. That is where I get my foreign stock data.


  38. Richard Woods says:

    Thanks for your great site. I am currently implementing the methods stated by Butler in “Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer 2015 Revision. But one of his rules is not clear. Perhaps you have some insight since you previously discussed the methods found in the original edition of the paper. When you select the top 5 funds and then want to use weights that yield minimum variance, what do you do when the number 5 fund has negative momentum? Do you only invest in the top 4 and compute the weights using only those 4 funds in the covar matrix?

    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Have to look back in the memory banks a bit, I can’t quite recall if the AAA strategy uses a cash filter. If it doesn’t then you would use the top 5 funds regardless of the positive/negative momentum.

  39. Richard Wilkes says:

    I just ran across your site looking through places to RV. I intend to look more. I too spent some 25 years in the semiconductor industry building, maintaining and operating wafer fabs. After a few years with Boeing, I had enough. I’ve also been investing as a hobby and most recently red Fabers material and am using a similar model with Etfreplay for a moving average in/out signals. I found a 90day/9day cross works a bit best and am trying a week to it by using the simple 5 etf methods also with liquid options to do covered calls against. Using other option, long / short strategies to fill in the blanks where cash is involved. Mostly I want to do this while freeing up my wife from work and venture around while we still can. Thanks for the head start! Now what to buy Class A or 5th wheel and toad……..

  40. gary says:

    Paul, is there a glossary of terms or list of acronyms in your blog that I can refer to? As a relative noob to the investment world, I’m at a loss when reading through your posts since I get hung up on the various abbreviations that I’m not familiar with. By way of intro, I’m a 72 year old retiree with no investment experience other than moving funds from one vehicle to another within the limited choices of my former employers 401K plan. Life was easy until 2 years ago when it was necessary to move my funds to an IRA. Since then, things have become considerably more challenging.


    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Hey Gary, yeah that is a huge change. And unfortunately I don’t have a glossary of terms. A blog doesn’t necessarily lend itself very easily to such a thing. I would recommend going through the ‘Portfolios’ page and reading through the historical post for each of the portfolios you are interested in.


  41. Gan says:

    Paul, do you have your portfolios available as Motifs? If not, would you consider setting up Motif (http://motifinvesting.com) portfolios for AGG3 AGG6 and other TAA strategies?
    That’ll make monthly adjustments automatic for those of us who follow your strategy. I believe Motif will also pay you back as more and more people follow your ETF basket.
    Just a thought. Thanks for everything you do.

  42. Sal says:

    Hi Paul, thank you for a very informative website. I’m sure this has already been addressed somewhere, but has anyone discussed modifying your Quant Trend Value approach for value ETFs, vs. value stocks? I saw your August 2013 post on going global with buying emerging markets stocks, why not sector and country ETFs with good valuations?

  43. Alex says:

    I’ve been following your blog for a while. We had planned to hit the road last year after selling our house in CA, but “another” opportunity came up in south florida so we are down here for a while..

    I would like to ask if your models are on portfolio123? You clearly are passionate about what you do investment wise. Are you taking on any clients for fees? If so, I would consider having you manage a part of my portfolio.

    Let me know if you are interested. We can meet locally to discuss if you wish.


    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Alex, my models are not publicly available on P123. And I don’t manage money for clients. I have looked into both and may do both in the future but not for now.


  44. Kevin Fillo says:

    Hi Paul:

    I am just getting started on my full time RV lifestyle and am impressed and motivated by what I’ve read here. I am 59 and a technology lawyer but will soon be relying on my investment portfolio as my principal source of income. Thanks for your insights and for the RV tips as well!

    Best regards.

  45. Victor says:

    Paul, here’s a link to a site that tracks a few of the “What works on wall street” quant portfolios. They note that the VC2 method was subsequently updated by the author (2 years later). Thought you might be interested.




  46. Matthew Ramsey says:

    Paul, another who “just found your blog” love it!! I have been reading the mechanical Investing section of Motley Fool for about 4-5 years and have some experience with quant investing. How easily are the WWOW screens created on P123? I’m currently indexing, and would like to start exploring these strategies right away, how much of a difference does it make to start mid year VS January? Thanks! All the best.

    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Hey Matthew, welcome. I find P123 pretty easy to use. It takes some time but it’s pretty easy given some familiarity with basic programming. I don’t fancy myself as even a decent programmer and I didn’t find it too bad. The WWOWS screens are pretty basic as well.
      WWOWS returns published in the book are an average of returns of portfolios started on each month of the year. So when you start doesn’t make a big difference.


      • Matt says:

        Paul, thanks for the reply.While reading the chapter on Consumer Staples, I noticed the next best strategy was to buy the top 25 as ranked just by yeild, nearly identical results and even easier to to screen for.

  47. Hannes Kury says:

    Hi Paul. We are fellow fulltimers. Thanks for your site! I have enjoyed reading it and I want to get serious about these diversified DIY investment strategies.

    I am assuming you are using some of the TAA and quant strategies discussed on your site. Which of the strategies you are actually running with real money and how much (percent) do you have in each strategy? I see that you have a lot of experience and background so I am interested to know what you are using now. If I decide to use the same or similar strategies it would help me read the material more efficiently.

    Thanks so much!

    • paul.novell@gmail.com says:

      Thanks Hannes. I’ve mentioned my allocation on the blog a few times, mainly in comments. Overall, my target allocation is 50% risk assets, 50% bonds. The 50% of the risky part of my portfolio is split approximately half to TAA strategies like AGG3, and half to individual stock quant strategies. The bond portion of my portfolio is approximately half to a quant bond strategy and half to a buy and hold strategy made up primarily of municipal bonds. I have not rebalanced my portfolio in a while so right now my portfolio is not quite at these targets but it is close inning (e.g due to recent good performance the individual quant stock strategies and buy and hold bonds are over their target allocation).


  48. Juan Carlos says:

    Hi Paul,

    Thanks for sharing your outstanding work and knowledge.
    I enjoy your screencasts.
    May I ask what tools do you use to make them?

    Thanks a lot.

    Best regards,

  49. Juan Carlos says:

    Thank you very much indeed!!!

  50. Eric says:


    Could not find a comment form following your strategy blog posts. So I’m leaving one here. Like your site and the ideas you share, but just to check I did a simple test to see if I could duplicate your results on the bond strategy. And I couldn’t.

    This is for the simple GBM strategy select 1 ETF from TLT, JNK, IGOV, and SHY based on 12 month returns. Fist off you show results going back to 2007, and near as I can tell IGOV has an inception date of 1/21/09 and JNK of 11/28/07. And for the years where I found data I got different annual returns. So wondering how you got those results. I would feel a lot more confident looking at your results knowing I could duplicate them.

    Thanks for any insights on how to resolve the discrepancies.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *