Is it possible to achieve higher safe withdrawal rates, compared to a stock/bond portfolio, from a 100% bond portfolio? With bond prices at historical highs? That’s what I wanted to find out. I started thinking in this direction after my look at bottoms up retirement planning and calculating what low […]
Today I want to touch on a little understood aspect of safe withdrawal rates (SWRs) in retirement. Using the historical method to determine SWRs (as opposed to Monte Carlo analysis) means that the maximum SWR (approx 4%) is singularly determined by one 30 year period, the 30 year retirement period […]
In today’s post I want to address another approach to dealing with the prospect of poor future returns. In my last post I described the prospect of poor future returns and different risk-based portfolio strategies in such an environment. Today I’ll consider an alternative. The alternatives are various dedicated income […]
There is a severe lack of long term perspective by most financial market participants these days. Interest rates, and in particular the potential for a dramatic rise in future rates, is just the most recent example. Most analyses of rising rates don’t go back far enough to be really useful. […]
In an earlier post I introduced a method to time the market, based on the 200-day moving average, that produced higher investment returns, lower volatility, and lower drawdowns than a buy and hold portfolio. As I’ve stated here many times lower drawdowns (max principal loss in any period) is critical […]
I’ve discussed the 4% withdrawal rule, the safe withdrawal rate (SWR), a couple of times already; in my post on how much does it take to retire and the one on how to actually use the 4% rule. Great, we’re all prepared for a safe and happy retirement. But wouldn’t […]
In a previous post (here) I addressed how much you need in assets to retire and how much you can safely withdraw per year to make sure that amount lasts you as long as your retirement lasts. That number, the safe withdrawal rate (SWR), I said was 4% for a […]
Time for my annual post updating statistics for the various portfolios that I track. This is the last post rounding up 2020 statistics. All portfolio stats were gathered using AllocateSmartly, P123, and various other sites like MSCI. Obviously, there are many more portfolio options out there. This is just a sampling […]
In today’s post I want to take a look at an alternative measure of risk in portfolios, the Ulcer Performance Index, and use it to rank the various TAA and buy and hold strategies. First, let’s talk about the Ulcer Performance Index (UPI). The Ulcer Performance Index (UPI) is similar […]
Time for my annual post updating statistics for the various portfolios that I track. This is the last post rounding up 2019 statististics. All portfolio stats were gathered using AllocateSmartly, P123, various other sites like MSCI, and the wonder that is Excel. Obviously, there are many more portfolio options out there. […]
Time for my annual post updating statistics for the various portfolios that I track. All portfolio stats were gathered using AllocateSmartly, P123, Morningstar and the wonder that is Excel. Obviously, there are many more portfolio options out there. This is just a sampling of three main portfolio varieties; buy and hold, TAA […]